Opening proceedings at this two-day international conference was the observation that 2014 marked a definitive return to the limelight for geopolitics. The transition towards a more unstable era and the ability of the international, institutional and business communities to cope with it served as the central focus for a debate that also sought to map the new geographic and sector-specific risks at play.
Firm grounds for optimism clouded by fears of old: this was the sentiment most repeated throughout the debate at the third “Italy meets the United States of America” Summit in New York, with this year’s edition entitled “Italy: we are open for business”. The event, organized by the Italian Business & Investment Initiative, Aspen Institute Italia, and the Council for Relations between Italy and the United States, was aimed at illustrating to US investors the opportunities offered by Italy for incoming and outgoing investment.
Serving as the opening premise for proceedings at this session of the Aspen Transatlantic Dialogue was the observation that productivity, not employment, will be the engine of the next industrial revolution, and that, despite the difficulties stemming from the prolonged crisis, the anti-decline camp has ample justification for envisioning a future in which manufacturing and industry will continue to play a central role. It was stressed, however, that they can only play such a role by undergoing transformation.
There is a broad consensus on the key issues that will determine the sustainability and efficiency of the eurozone (and the European Union as a whole). These include common mechanisms in Europe, domestic political consensus in the face of the considerable sacrifices imposed on citizens, the functioning of national institutions to introduce necessary reforms; and mutual trust between the member countries.
Organized in collaboration with the Italian Business & Investment Initiative, this international workshop highlighted a renewed openness towards investing in Italy precisely because it possesses – albeit frequently not well-known – assets of interest to investors. It was stressed, however, that implementing (not merely announcing or adopting) reforms, and providing certainty, consistency and a business-friendly environment, remain the real challenges to overcome, as there is fierce competition between nations to attract foreign investment.
At this latest edition of the Aspen Transatlantic Dialogue, the participants pointed to recent developments in the United States – with the at-least partial “shutdown” of federal government operations – as highlighting the multiple dysfunction of political systems on both sides of the Atlantic. It was noted that, in the midst of an economic recovery that is uncertain, in some respects fragile, and unquestionably asymmetric (both as between different sectors and between different countries), the efficiency of government decision-making becomes crucial.
The main challenge identified as facing European leaders was that of striking a delicate balance between maintaining domestic political consensus (in the face of strong social tensions) and implementing necessary but painful reforms that almost without exception will only yield positive results in the medium to long term. While the worst of the financial crisis seems to have been overcome, many concerns remain regarding the overall state of Europe’s economies and the EU’s continued viability from a political and institutional standpoint.
The participants at this Aspen European Dialogue session held in Istanbul observed that the problems being experienced by the euro area in the wake of the financial crisis are linked to certain global trends (particularly movements in commodity prices). These global pressures, it was noted, have in turn triggered or fueled popular uprisings in the Arab world, with glaring socio-political consequences.
The Middle East is an increasingly diverse region where very old problems coexist with genuine opportunities for renewal and socio-economic progress. A powerful driver of change has become the Gulf, thanks to very large financial resources and a willingness to invest in the neighboring countries – as well as beyond, with a special emphasis on East Asia.
The global imbalances reflected in demographic trends, in terms of economic and safety levels, are huge, and must be considered as a central factor in devising any realistic policy options. Whatever happens, there will be waves of migrants heading for Europe, as well as North America and the other wealthy countries in the world, with numbers undoubtedly increasing whenever there are any major conflicts underway. Faced with this reality and given the difference in the number of young workers compared to pensioners and the overall burden of the continent’s welfare syst
Antitrust regulations take a truly dynamic approach to the issue in question. They adapt to the continual evolution of the markets, and objectives evolve with time. Globalization and the international crisis are both factors that have a significant effect on competition. The original inspiration behind America’s 1890 Sherman Act has more-or-less been forgotten but its objective, in fact, was to protect small businesses from “the giants”.
The ongoing efforts to build a well functioning Energy Union in Europe should be seen in the context of major global changes related in various ways to the energy sector – possibly a whole new phase of globalization, featuring new actors, new forms of balance of power, new conflicts (actual or potential).
Trade agreements, particularly those between Europe and the US (TTIP: The Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership), provide a huge opportunity for development and growth and are therefore so much more than a potential risk. The European Commission’s agenda is very ambitious.
Launching discussions at this World Economy Conference was an acknowledgement by those in attendance that the recovery from the economic crisis of recent years has been particularly slow in historical terms, with the most recent figures confirming fears of a further possible slowdown. This global scenario was seen as a fortiori necessitating that growth be considered a top priority for Europe during Italy’s current 6-month-long presidency of the Council of the EU.
The three issues explored at the recent Aspen International Conference event – the “World Economy Dialogue” held in Rome on June 30, 2014 – were the subject of discussion at this first joint meeting of the Friends of Aspen and Aspen Junior Fellows. The resources to be called upon for the global recovery, the energy challenge facing Europe, and sub-Saharan Africa as a frontier for global growth hence provided the guiding framework for a debate informed by the specific profile of those in attendance, namely, entrepreneurs and young people.
Leading in to discussions at this Aspen Junior Fellows event was the observation that 2014 is the launch year for the European Banking Union, the product of what have been difficult compromises between the various countries involved after six years of financial crisis and two recessions.
At this event to launch the latest edition of Aspenia, the focus of debate was the fact that diverging trends in the world’s major economies have been made more patent than ever before by the financial crisis that erupted in 2008, and which, particularly in Europe, has since transformed into a sovereign debt crisis. Chief among these divergences are the almost opposite trajectories of emerging markets compared to those of traditionally advanced economies, the divide between Europe and the United States, and glaring disparities within the European Union.
Opening proceedings at this International Workshop was the observation that complex challenges lie ahead for the world’s three major economic engines, namely China, Europe, and the United States. These challenges stem from the slowdown in global growth and the partial readjustment that this has entailed, but they are also the result of the various internal contradictions or inefficiencies from which each of these players suffers. Indeed, it was stressed that their main policy and institutional choices cannot be separated from those of an economic nature.
At this talk-debate event held in Rome, it was noted that although twenty years have passed since the publication of the book “Nazioni senza ricchezza, ricchezze senza Nazione” written by Giulio Tremonti, Sabino Cassese, Tiziano Treu and Francesco Galgano, the work remains extraordinarily relevant today, as by the time of its release a rift had already emerged between nations and reality, with the latter – and the problems and opportunities it presented – eluding the material constraints under which the former were forced to operate.
This encounter with Professor Guido Tabellini, Rector and Full Professor of Economics at the Luigi Bocconi University, gave the Aspen Junior Fellows an in-depth look at today’s issues. Twenty years after Maastricht, Europe’s economic and financial scenario has changed radically. The outlines of European unity were born of an optimistic forecast of the ability to govern a monetary – albeit not yet political or fiscal – union in the context of growing financial integration.
