The global imbalances reflected in demographic trends, in terms of economic and safety levels, are huge, and must be considered as a central factor in devising any realistic policy options. Whatever happens, there will be waves of migrants heading for Europe, as well as North America and the other wealthy countries in the world, with numbers undoubtedly increasing whenever there are any major conflicts underway. Faced with this reality and given the difference in the number of young workers compared to pensioners and the overall burden of the continent’s welfare systems, there is a general consensus that immigration in itself is does not provide the answer to Europe’s employment needs.
It is also true, however, that European policies regarding how to manage these waves of people, and how to integrate new arrivals, have proved at best to be reactive (and activated after significant delays), lack sufficient funding and are incoherent – both in terms of a co-ordinated European policy and even at a national level between different agencies. This has made already complex problems concerning migrants from poor countries even worse; they have had little education and arrive with limited, if any, professional skills. The situation is not helped by Europe’s employment crisis either.
Against this background, the world of work – beginning with the relationship between workers, technologies and the needs of consumers – business models and the level of international competition, which has affected all systems and countries, are already in a state of flux.
At the political level, intolerance is on the rise and this often conditions the entire debate regarding which options to choose and what they will cost, not just in economic terms, but also in votes.
Migration issues are increasingly seen from a cultural identity point of view, which makes any objective evaluations hard even when it comes to determining the positive effects of immigration. One significant factor in containing the risk of a social breakdown is education – beginning with early schooling. As a powerful tool in the creation of a cohesive social fabric, it can help to embrace diversity without the fear of fragmentation or isolation.
The macro “Euro-African” region has become particularly relevant in recent years and is indicative of the scale of the migratory phenomena that are of especial interest to Italy and the rest of Europe.
Any organic interventions must necessarily tackle the three stages of migratory waves: pre-migration (when possible, and in cooperation with source countries), transit (involving North African countries in particular) and finally arrival in European countries (often not the final destination or at least, not that chosen as such by the migrants themselves). An all-inclusive policy should establish conditions under which migrants are returned to their country of origin and a true circulatory flow of people rather than a movement that is one-way only.
Intra-European migration is also extremely important in the context of the redefinition of the very concept of State and nation with regards to the level of cohesion within the EU. That in itself is already broken down into “variable geometry” groupings such as the Schengen area, which naturally does not correspond to either the Union in its entirety or the Euro zone, which makes it even more difficult to introduce coherent policies in various sectors.
Up until now, none of the integration models that have been tried – in Britain, France and more recently in Germany – seem to have met with any real success. Countries traditionally very open to immigrants, such as the Netherlands, have significantly changed their attitude in recent years whilst others, like Italy, are in the throes of a difficult cultural transition from being an emigration country to one that is an immigration destination (at least temporarily). In any event, all have learned the lesson about the serious danger inherent in segregating new arrivals, whether physically, socially or culturally, as that then becomes a serious obstacle to integration.
It probably is necessary to look at migration issues as being a security problem too, but up until now, that has not produced major positive results with regards to managing the waves of migrants on the move. In any event, that issue risks drawing attention away from other, primary social and humanitarian concerns. That said, adopting a broader view on security issues could be the answer if also includes the safety and health of the migrants themselves and was based on the wealth of experience accumulated during rescue operations at sea and the provision of support and assistance on land.
The existence of “failed states”, or state entities that are intensely unstable on the southern shores of the Mediterranean has brought about significant changes to the strategic framework, which has resulted in the perception of the migrant issue as being an acute emergency rather than a long-term structural factor. Terrorism is another factor that is undoubtedly a catalyst in the on-going debate about the flows of migrants, especially because of the inherent criminal and clandestine elements that are largely responsible for the phenomenon and make huge profits from it. It is also a problem linked to growing concerns about the safety of so-called “critical infrastructures” that constitute a sort of weak link between the security systems of the most developed countries. As in the case of the waves of migrants, there needs to be a redefining of the relationship between “defendable” borders and the free movement of people, information and goods that do, to some extent, transcend the traditional distinction between internal and external security frontiers. Some of the most “critical” infrastructures from a social point of view are, effectively, the places in which there is a heavy concentration of civilians and this could create another direct link between the identity issues raised by immigration and the security measures required to monitor populations that are becoming increasingly diverse, particularly in major tourist cities and large urban centers.
The particular challenge faced by Europe following the disintegration of Libya is now, finally, one on which an EU resolution is pending. It will, however, be necessary for the many contributing factors that lay behind the waves of migrants to be taken into account, trying, at the same time, to contain the phenomenon as a matter of urgency, particularly on humanitarian grounds.
Military tools could offer significant help, but can only be deployed as part of a series of diplomatic and economic interventions as well as aid. Taking that decision, however, will require a greater degree of centralization and operational coordination than currently exists.
Finally, social tensions that have increased due to the marked geographic concentration of migrants, and those seeking asylum in a few areas of particular countries like Italy, must be evaluated on the basis of their potential effect on the political climate. That in turn will determine the choices made regarding more wide sweeping policies on migration. Any actions taken in the short term however, will have a direct effect on any medium and short-term developments in Europe’s capacity to better manage the situation.