The Future of Currencies
The international financial system is in the throes of deep change as a result of the war in Ukraine – and not only. Upheaval is destined to continue. The dollar, reserve currency par excellence, will gain strength, while the euro, despite its aspirations to become the second global reserve currency, still has a long road ahead of it; and the difficult international situation will only contribute to widening the divide between the two.
Aspenia 96: Presentation – Monete e potere
Rome, 18 March 2022 –To tie in with the publication of Aspenia 96 (in Italian), Aspen Institute Italia will be holding an Aspenia Talk on “The future of currency” in digital mode at 18:00 on 23 March. The panel will be held on the Zoom platform and will be open to the press.
Investing in Italy: New Prospects and Old Stumbling Blocks
Rome, 19 November 2021 – Aspen Institute Italia, in partnership with British American Tobacco Italia, will be holding an Aspenia Talk on “The future of foreign investments in Italy and in Europe” in digital mode at 18:00 on 23 November.
US economic recovery, a long way to go
Erik Jones
Director of European and Eurasian Studies; Professor of European Studies and International Political Economy, Johns Hopkins University
evento correlato: Assessing risk: intersection of global economy and geopolitics
The future of foreign investment in Italy and Europe
Country system appeal has always been an issue for Italy, the recipient of between 2% and 3% of all direct foreign investments in Europe and the twelfth-ranked nation on the continent. The difficulty in attracting investments is paramount among the concerns to be addressed in ensuring support for and the development of the country’s fabric of small and medium-sized enterprises. Yet, the country presents a marked dualism, not only between north and south, but also between levels of competitiveness and productivity.
Re-shaping finance: the challenges ahead
The world of finance, with its products and markets, is undergoing a deep transformation. Indeed, from the standpoint of technology, the instruments made available to operators over the past 10 years have revolutionized the sector.
Post pandemic Italy’s banking sector: new challenges, new opportunities for the real economy
As it leaves the health emergency behind, Italy is focusing on economic recovery. The European resources of the National Recovery and Resilience Plan offer major opportunities in a shifting scenario. On the one hand, the crisis was not the result of structural problems, but rather due to a situation created by the pandemic; this means that, despite the difficulties of this forced arrest, reviving the economic machine should not be too problematic. On the other hand, however, these long months of inactivity have compromised the financial situation of many firms.
Recovery and Resilience Facility and “Eurobond”: what news for the EU?
The bulk of the Recovery Plan’s massive investments are in the form of the Eurobonds with which the European Union plans to stimulate the continent’s post-pandemic economy. Nevertheless, their introduction – a proposal dating back to the late 1980s aimed at encouraging investments and infrastructure – could represent a veritable paradigm shift in EU policy. Fostering that, in the first place, would be the continent’s strategic autonomy in a range of sectors currently in need of a common vision with regard to protection and enhancement.
The Biden Administration and the Future of America
President Biden’s inauguration comes at a moment of serious division in the United States. Urgent domestic issues and a shifting international context have created some major challenges for the American leadership. Although he may be eager to put the “Trump factor” behind him with a long series of executive orders right from the start, the new president must also lay out a broader strategy.
For a sustainable and responsible economy: the role of finance
Sustainability has been a concern in the financial world for some time now, with steady and significant growth over recent years in investments centered on ESG (environment, sustainability and governance) criteria. Far from slowing that trend, the Corona virus epidemic is proving an accelerator, with investors seizing on the opportunities associated with a “green” recovery and reconstruction.
Financing the recovery. Europe, Germany, Italy
The main thread of the meeting could be summarized in this initial question: How can political relations between two culturally similar countries like Italy and Germany be so fragile and apparently unstable despite the solid trade relationship they enjoy? The parameters of the search for an answer were broad and deep, proof of the historic breadth of an Italo-German relationship dating back to the Renaissance and marked today by the shared values and principles of the European Union.
The future of the European economy: the new Commission’s choices
The European Union is confronting a series of long-term structural challenges that, nevertheless, require the immediate implementation of high impact, broad-spectrum policies. An initial issue is climate change, naturally a planet-wide concern for which Europe has already set goals, such as carbon neutrality within 2050 (which will obviously have direct effects on the energy sector).
Open innovation: financial technology, banking, business
Banking is one of the sectors most exposed to the digital revolution. The major changes introduced by new technologies and the various actors that have debuted on the credit market are causing traditional operators to wonder about their future. The timid attempts at innovation undertaken to date by Italian banks do not appear sufficient to ensure their competitiveness in a scenario that is seeing sources of short and medium term returns shrinking.
Women empowerment, financial inclusion and sustainable development: public choices and private partnership
The empowerment of women calls for a combination of measures capable of invoking the Sustainable Development Goals and their social, economic and environmental dimension; and in equal measure the financial dimension, which is gaining growing importance in this contemporary world and where women are under-represented. What is needed are policies and actions aimed at a sustainable finance sector that sees women as essential players in economic growth and, even more importantly, in all aspects that regard inclusion.
How the financial markets see Italy
Current economic data offer a conflicting pitcure of the Italian country system. Some of the numbers are encouraging: the balance of payments is positive, inflation is low and portfolio investments in Italian assets have once again begun to rise, in some cases surpassing pre-2008 financial downturn levels. At the same time, unemployment levels, low growth and a public debt at near historic heights are evidence of how some key problems are far from having been resolved.
The future of banking, the bank of the future
Wedged as they are between factors that limit profitability and competition from Fintech companies, banks are being forced to innovate. In a European scenario penalized by low interest rates, Italian credit institutions are also suffering the impact of the country’s low economic growth and of trends affecting the government bonds, of which they are the principal holders. Added to all this is a European legislative framework that has continued to evolve over recent years and that has prioritized the reduction of risk associated with non-performing loans.
Brexit and financial markets: the consequences for Italy
Brexit and all the uncertainty it is generating constitute an entirely new and potentially destabilizing element for financial markets.
London has long functioned as Europe’s main financial market despite being located outside the Eurozone. The United Kingdom’s exit from the European Union now places Europe at a crossroads: either reach an agreement making it possible to maintain a good portion of operations in London or begin the long and painstaking task of creating a continental marketplace.
A new winter for the global economy? Geopolitical and financial risks
The US economy continues to show signs of very strong and wide-based growth, although a few indicators suggest possible problems going forward. A relatively optimistic view points to the fact that there are no significant financial imbalances – especially since companies are doing well. Historically, unless the real estate sector is directly involved in a crisis of confidence, even significant equity market corrections do not cause recessions. The housing market has indeed slowed, but only to the degree that this was expected, and current prices appear to be sustainable.
Banks and the real economy: renewing cooperation to boost local development
The participants at this National Conference noted that after a decade of profound economic and social crisis, some encouraging signs are emerging on a macroeconomic level that lend hope to the possibility of reestablishing a virtuous circle between the financial system, the real economy, and society at large. It was acknowledged, however, that there are still many challenges to be addressed, including regulation and the technological acceleration that has led to the advent of the fintech phenomenon.