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At one year from the start of the Ukraine war, which has upended an energy sector already struggling under the pressure of the post-Covid recovery, Europe finds itself faced with a “trilemma”.
The war in Ukraine represents a major point of discontinuity in prospects for a future international power balance teetering between the order ensured by a system of shared rules and a scenario of disorder marked by a tense democracy/autocracy standoff.
The war Russia has unleashed on Ukraine is having a global effect, especially in the energy sector and on the economy more generally, in what was already a considerably unstable global environment. Despite the fragmentation or regionalization of some phenomena now underway, globalization continues to be a fundamental reality for today’s world, in terms both of trade interdependence and, even more critically, of financial connections – sectors where the West clearly remains predominant.
The international financial system is in the throes of deep change as a result of the war in Ukraine – and not only. Upheaval is destined to continue. The dollar, reserve currency par excellence, will gain strength, while the euro, despite its aspirations to become the second global reserve currency, still has a long road ahead of it; and the difficult international situation will only contribute to widening the divide between the two.
