The breakfast meeting got underway with an identification of the long-term challenges that the economic crisis poses to the West. It was noted that the last twenty years have been marked by momentous changes. In the 1990s, the various areas of the world became increasingly interdependent. As a result, the last ten years have seen the highest global GDP growth ever recorded, fueled mainly by the US deficit and Chinese exports. However, the scale of this financial and trade imbalance cannot support future growth.
In terms of the real economy, the paradigms that characterized economic development in the 20th century are changing rapidly, with Europe’s new opportunities lying in the knowledge economy – the development of which requires urgent, collective and innovative support.
As with the economic scenario, the international political landscape has also changed radically in just twenty years. Previously, the greatest threats to world security came from larger countries, whereas they now come from smaller nations such as North Korea and Afghanistan. The strengthening of regional-level cooperation is thus becoming increasingly crucial. In this regard, the participants recalled the benefits in terms of stabilization that enlargement of the EU has produced, whilst noting that, now, the new frontier of stabilization raises the possibility of enlarging the EU to include Ukraine and Turkey.
The current international scenario still sees the European Union playing a marginal role, despite being the first single global market, due to the lack of a unified political stance, including within the various major international financial institutions. The bolstering of international organizations and institutions also requires the EU to speak with one voice in these forums. For this to occur, there is a need for greater determination and leadership. In contrast, however, Europe is currently witnessing the emergence of isolationist and protectionist national policies aimed at combating internal social problems. A case in point are the recent decisions taken in Germany regarding the choice of foreign partner in the automotive industry.
Linked to these political and economic uncertainties is the issue of environmental sustainability. The participants concluded that if the forecasts of various scientific sources are correct, climate change represents the chief global concern. Hence, there is a need for intensive dialogue between the United States and China as the major drivers of any possible change on this front.