Opening proceedings at this two-day international conference was the observation that 2014 marked a definitive return to the limelight for geopolitics. The transition towards a more unstable era and the ability of the international, institutional and business communities to cope with it served as the central focus for a debate that also sought to map the new geographic and sector-specific risks at play.
Serving as the opening premise for proceedings at this session of the Aspen Transatlantic Dialogue was the observation that productivity, not employment, will be the engine of the next industrial revolution, and that, despite the difficulties stemming from the prolonged crisis, the anti-decline camp has ample justification for envisioning a future in which manufacturing and industry will continue to play a central role. It was stressed, however, that they can only play such a role by undergoing transformation.
At this latest edition of the Aspen Transatlantic Dialogue, the participants pointed to recent developments in the United States – with the at-least partial “shutdown” of federal government operations – as highlighting the multiple dysfunction of political systems on both sides of the Atlantic. It was noted that, in the midst of an economic recovery that is uncertain, in some respects fragile, and unquestionably asymmetric (both as between different sectors and between different countries), the efficiency of government decision-making becomes crucial.
The main challenge identified as facing European leaders was that of striking a delicate balance between maintaining domestic political consensus (in the face of strong social tensions) and implementing necessary but painful reforms that almost without exception will only yield positive results in the medium to long term. While the worst of the financial crisis seems to have been overcome, many concerns remain regarding the overall state of Europe’s economies and the EU’s continued viability from a political and institutional standpoint.
The current economic crisis is subjecting the entire “EU system” to conflicting pressures. On the one hand, the search for a synergistic and coordinated approach to economic policies would undoubtedly be facilitated if its joint institutions were performing well.
With issue 64 of the Institute’s Aspenia journal dedicated to Brazil, the panel discussion for the launch of the volume focused on examining recent developments in a country that has come through several consecutive years of internal political stability, during which the foundations were laid for its sustainable economic growth and greater international influence.
Launching discussions at this World Economy Conference was an acknowledgement by those in attendance that the recovery from the economic crisis of recent years has been particularly slow in historical terms, with the most recent figures confirming fears of a further possible slowdown. This global scenario was seen as a fortiori necessitating that growth be considered a top priority for Europe during Italy’s current 6-month-long presidency of the Council of the EU.
The three issues explored at the recent Aspen International Conference event – the “World Economy Dialogue” held in Rome on June 30, 2014 – were the subject of discussion at this first joint meeting of the Friends of Aspen and Aspen Junior Fellows. The resources to be called upon for the global recovery, the energy challenge facing Europe, and sub-Saharan Africa as a frontier for global growth hence provided the guiding framework for a debate informed by the specific profile of those in attendance, namely, entrepreneurs and young people.
At this event to launch the latest edition of Aspenia, the focus of debate was the fact that diverging trends in the world’s major economies have been made more patent than ever before by the financial crisis that erupted in 2008, and which, particularly in Europe, has since transformed into a sovereign debt crisis. Chief among these divergences are the almost opposite trajectories of emerging markets compared to those of traditionally advanced economies, the divide between Europe and the United States, and glaring disparities within the European Union.
It was observed at this meeting of Former Aspen Junior Fellows that Italy’s current prime objective is economic development. To aid recovery, the country must make the most of every resource at its disposal. In addition to firms, institutions and social partners, this joint undertaking was also requiring the involvement of professionals, who contribute 15% of GDP and represent nearly two and a half million highly-skilled individuals, of whom one-third are between 30 and 40 years of age and a significant proportion are female.
The Mediterranean region is very diverse and simultaneously presents elements of close interdependence: the economic crisis of the past few years has shown that each country reacts to the challenges and opportunities on the basis of specific institutional and social features, even in the presence of important contagion effects. The political transitions in some Arab countries, starting with Tunisia and Egypt, confirm these twin tendencies whereby endogenous and local factors interact with regional and international ones.
Opening proceedings at this International Workshop was the observation that complex challenges lie ahead for the world’s three major economic engines, namely China, Europe, and the United States. These challenges stem from the slowdown in global growth and the partial readjustment that this has entailed, but they are also the result of the various internal contradictions or inefficiencies from which each of these players suffers. Indeed, it was stressed that their main policy and institutional choices cannot be separated from those of an economic nature.
One of the opening observations at this International Workshop was that the shape of transatlantic relations is gradually changing with the emergence of a new global order, and that an upshot of this process is the opportunity to create a “Southern Atlanticism”, which hinges on extending traditional North Atlantic ties to Latin America (and potentially to some areas of the African continent).
The second meeting of the Trialogue series focused on the issues of global economic governance (with special attention to the role of the G20), trans-Atlantic and trans-Pacific links in the security field, and instability in the Middle East region with its possible implications.
Once upon a time, there was GDP. Or rather, once there was “just” GDP, understood as an aggregate indicator used to measure a country’s economic growth by quantifying the flow of goods and services for end-use and produced within a certain period of time in a given territory.
This talk-debate was organized by Aspen Institute Italia to mark the recent publication in Italy (by EGEA) of Kishore Mahbubani’s book entitled The New Asian Hemisphere. During the event, it was observed that with Asia growing at a phenomenal pace, the continent is set to be the key economic player of the next century, yet at the same time it has still to find a stable footing within the international economic and political order.
More than three years after the outbreak of the crisis which engulfed the world economy, Italian businesses have shown that they have, on the whole, withstood the impact of the economic and financial tsunami. The country remains the fifth-ranking global manufacturing power and the second in Europe after Germany, running counter to the trend that has seen a progressive reduction in the market shares of traditional industrial economies – the US and Japan in particular.
The complexities of the current global macroeconomic situation are pushing the world economy in many different directions. The US is undertaking a second round of quantitative easing in order to buy protection against a deflationary risk. China is slowly allowing the RMB to appreciate while preparing the next 5 year plan as it transitions from an economy with unlimited resources and limited interactions with the rest to the world into an economy that is starting to feel a deteriorating growth/inflation trade off and is becoming a key player in international trade and markets.
Aspen Institute Italia organized the “China, Europe, U.S. Trialogue” jointly with Aspen USA and the Central School of the Communist Party, in cooperation with the Fondazione Italia Cina, on December 2-3 in Beijing.
Created by the implosion of the US financial system, the last of the “bubbles” – that of the housing market – is the culmination of over a decade of shortsighted American monetary policies and an inadequate monitoring system. The situation is particularly grave, with forecasts that world growth will fall from 5% in 2007 to little more than 1% in 2009. As yet, it is not possible to predict how long the recession will last.
