This session of the Aspen Seminars for Leaders examined various institutional scenarios, viewed from the perspective of changes taking place at the European and global level and the reform processes that these call for within Italy. It was observed that, on the one hand, the search for more stable global macroeconomic balances has been accompanied by European debate concerning the tightening of fiscal regulation, changes to the Growth and Stability Pact, and putting in place adequate mechanisms to deal with emergency situations. On the other, the ability of the governments of individual member states, including Italy, has been hampered by a proliferation of veto powers and excessive regulatory and bureaucratic controls. The participants highlighted that this is indicative of a more general crisis affecting the “nation-state”, offset by a process – at times direct and at other times not so direct – of nation-building at the European level whose outcomes, however, remain tentative and uncertain.
The Seminar debate also focused on the question of future intergenerational balances and demographic challenges. It was pointed out that the resident population of Italy is estimated to remain more or less stable in number, whilst the incidence of foreigners to the total population will rise to 17%. Furthermore, over-80-year olds are set to make up 15% of the country’s population by 2050. It was stressed that whilst the welfare system will still be sustainable, it will be less generous. Among the major problems to be addressed in Italy over the next decade will be the fall in birth rates, the number of young people staying “at home” longer, and an increase in the number of older people living alone and of those who are not self-sufficient. Given this backdrop, immigrants to Italy will play an important role in compensating for the decline in labor supply amongst Italian citizens. Nevertheless, it was felt that this does not mean that, in the future, the influx of immigrants must necessarily exceed the current ceiling of 200 thousand people a year.
As far as the competitive prospects of Italian businesses are concerned, the participants stressed the importance of fostering growth and employment. In order to bear fruit, however, the efforts of the private sector must be complemented by the State taking an active role, support from the country’s banking sector, and the development of education and research services. The business sphere, for its part, is rich and composes a number of different levels, each of which must deal with competitive challenges of its own. The problems facing the approximately 4,000 larger firms are different to those confronting small- and medium-sized enterprises, which must first overcome the challenges of consolidation, growth in size and integration into efficient networks. The issues impacting on microenterprises and trades, which concern training and apprenticeships, are different again. The participants also perceived a need on the part of the non-profit sector to establish a more stable and long-term relationship with administrative authorities. Finally, it was noted that ad-hoc measures are required for new businesses, to facilitate the establishment and “closure” of firms, the startup of tech companies, and the entry of foreign businesses and investment into the country.