At this roundtable session dealing with the future of Italy’s welfare system, the participants observed that tackling the issue of risk management requires the resolution of an evident paradox, namely, that while the risks to which households and firms are exposed are becoming greater in number and increasingly serious, the public resources needed to address them are in ever more limited supply.
The point of departure for discussions at this ASL session was an acknowledgement that the gradual but inexorable process of population aging is having profound effects on the demographic and economic structure of societies. In this regard, the participants pointed to forecast trends that speak volumes: in all developed countries, and especially in Italy, Japan and Germany, the proportion of elderly people relative to the total population will continue to rise substantially.
Debate at this ASL session focused on framing the complexities of Italy’s economic system within an international context widely held to be in a state of crisis. It was submitted that a closer look at the real economy reveals a need to bolster the international competitive ranking of Italian firms and sectors with reforms capable of shaping the future evolution of the country’s education and research sector, the functioning of the labor market, and the banking and financial system.
The event was introduced by the reflection on presentism, or the lack of collective attention in a country overly concerned with the present and which is losing its strategic vision. Presentism is the product of “real time” which has been brought on by technological advancement. Faced with weighing benefits in terms of quality of information and the growth of opportunities, the present has expanded and it has taken over our past and future. In this way, in economic terms, the world financial crisis came about due to an excessive focus on the short term.
Proceedings at this roundtable session got underway with the participants observing that an aging population, immigration and the brain drain are issues that Italy needs to address by looking to the future as well as at the past. Indeed, the current state of affairs is the product of previous trends. In decades gone by, there was a surplus of births over deaths and a negative migration balance, but today that situation has been reversed.
This session of the Aspen Seminars for Leaders examined various institutional scenarios, viewed from the perspective of changes taking place at the European and global level and the reform processes that these call for within Italy. It was observed that, on the one hand, the search for more stable global macroeconomic balances has been accompanied by European debate concerning the tightening of fiscal regulation, changes to the Growth and Stability Pact, and putting in place adequate mechanisms to deal with emergency situations.
This international workshop, dedicated to the issue of the sustainability of health systems in the face of an ageing population, highlighted the fact that the phenomenon affects all countries, whether developed or developing. Since the middle of the 19th century, life expectancy at birth in all industrialized nations has doubled and, in some cases, more than doubled. At the same time, birth rates and fertility rates have fallen and, in Western countries, have dropped to a quarter of their levels at the beginning of the 20th century.
The Seminar discussions highlighted the divide that exists in Italy today between the core research sector and the business world. It was noted that there is a lack of osmosis capable, on the one hand, of making the most of potential and, on the other, of integrating it into a productive strategy to support the country’s economy. There is a need for the State to coordinate research centers, health authorities, industry and the regulatory sphere, in accordance with policy choices formulated on the basis of the health needs of the country.
