The Aspen Mediterranean Initiative participants concurred that the Mediterranean area is becoming even more diverse than it has been in the past, a fact which calls for special attention to be paid to the situation unfolding in various locales in the region, especially at a time of uncertain political transition in which social forces have a potentially crucial role to play.
The discussion hinged on two main concerns regarding countries on the southern shores of the Mediterranean, namely: how to build democratic systems that are sustainable in the long-term (being both socially and institutionally robust), and how to build dynamic and modern economies (in the sense of being open to and integrated with international trade) .
In respect of both of these issues, it was felt that there are no predetermined models that can be applied without being modified to suit the circumstances of each particular country. Nevertheless, various experiences could be adapted and incorporated within national practices, in a process of transformation that will in any event be a protracted one. Irrespective of this, however, the constitutional debates, open electoral contests and the formation of new party systems are taking place at a delicate time of international economic crisis, meaning that some emergency measures (in particular to boost employment and growth) are also needed, even if the focus of strategic choices (both of national governments and of international agencies and organizations) must be the medium-to-long term.
The participants then turned their attentions to examining three issues in more detail, namely: the role of the media, both as an economic sector in its own right and in terms of its social responsibility; the market institutions responsible for ensuring the existence of business opportunities and fair dealing; and the commodities sector, especially the energy industry.
The role of the media was seen as having been and continuing to be crucial in determining the direction of change in all countries of the region. Even the Western world is undergoing a complex transformation in communications, with changes taking place in the production and dissemination of and access to news and information, the effects of which are not yet fully understood. Just as the distinction between traditional media and “new media” is very blurred, the distinction between large media groups and small content creators (right down to the individual blogger) is also perhaps in the process of disappearing. What does remain pivotal in many countries, however, is the state’s role in managing communications.
It was stressed that market rules need to be established and enshrined legislatively and judicially in order for the productive potential of countries on the southern shores of the Mediterranean to be fully realized. More open markets capable of attracting international investment are a necessary precondition for the continued modernization of these societies.
On the other hand, economic freedoms and the way competition plays out will need to be somehow tempered by measures to ensure inclusion and social cohesion, and hence, the redistribution of wealth, given the legacy left by decades of gaping inequalities.
Also seen as crucial was the interplay between economic activities and government decisions (at all levels), which it was emphasized ought to be guided by the criteria of the rule of law, transparency, and freedom of communications and expression. The ideal recipe would seem to be that of regulatory certainty apt to ensure maximum social mobility – a formula which rests largely on the empowerment of individuals, starting with young people and women.
Security of commodity supplies, and particularly of energy, was pointed to as clearly constituting an essential component of any modern economy. In the Mediterranean and the Middle East, trade in energy forms the backbone of economic relations, and also impacts heavily on security arrangements. It was suggested that the energy sector, which by its nature requires permanent and expensive infrastructure, could help foster the development of cross-border ties throughout the entire Mediterranean basin, and hence, not just between the North and South but also between the East and West, with diversification now a phenomenon that affects both consumers/importers as much as producers/exporters of energy.
Whilst it was conceded that political instability clearly is not conducive to major investment in long-term projects, the participants nevertheless acknowledged the huge potential of the region both in more traditional sectors – such as oil and gas – and in more innovative ones – such as “green energy”.
The participants recognized that European and Western countries have a strong interest in how power balances in the region evolve, and therefore also in the nature of the political regimes installed (which, in turn, will affect diplomatic relations, security, and economic exchanges). Yet it is not just a matter of upholding universal principles or a general preference for pluralist political systems, but of ensuring that relations in the Mediterranean are governed in an effective and farsighted manner. In conclusion, there was widespread acceptance of the limits of the direct influence that Europe – and even the US itself – may exert over the changes underway in the Mediterranean and Middle East. At the same time, however, Europe remains a key player both by reason of its size and power of attraction, and, it was forecast, will be even more so if it succeeds in pursuing consistent courses of action, bringing to bear its combined influence and its experience as an economically integrated region.