Kick-starting talks at this session of the Aspen Mediterranean Initiative was the observation that the arduous and variegated evolution of the Mediterranean region needs to be viewed within the prevailing global context. This context was seen as marked by the – albeit slow and uneven – recovery of Western economies, the apparent relative slowdown and adjustment of the major emerging economies, the strain on traditional welfare systems, the major trade negotiations underway, environmental sustainability issues, and massive migration flows (that in part traverse the Mediterranean), all set against the backdrop of constant technological changes that are impacting on societies and their way of life.
It was noted that Europe and the United States have encountered many difficulties in formulating coherent policy responses to the changes unfolding within the region, and that the constraints imposed by the economic crisis have been compounded by a general awareness of the limitations evidenced by major regional initiatives of the past. The idiosyncrasies of each Arab country were also deemed to militate – even more so than in the past – in favor of a selective approach, not just to local business but also to cooperation in a broader sense.
One phenomenon pointed to by the participants as a real concern was the growth of political Islam throughout the region, though manifesting significant differences from country to country. Additionally, it was observed that more radical groups have at the same time splintered and are on the move, thus posing a threat currently concentrated predominantly in Syria and Iraq, but pertinent to all countries in the region and capable of even spreading to European countries. These movements are fomenting dangerous instances of popular unrest in the most delicate stages of political transitions, including, in some cases, transitions towards democracy.
As for the more moderate manifestations of political Islam, it was felt that external actors should (while not refraining from demanding that certain fundamental principles be respected) always aim to foster inclusive processes in any political restructuring of countries on the southern shores of the Mediterranean.
Those in attendance emphasized that the abovementioned risks are in addition to the serious preexisting problems which prompted the protests and riots of 2011, and which remain largely unresolved, including high (especially youth) unemployment, a lack of efficient market mechanisms, insufficiently dynamic economic growth, widespread corruption, and state authorities that citizens perceive as far-removed and untrustworthy.
It was suggested that the main problem lies in the very fact that two levels of weakness in Arab societies are prone to tailspinning into a sort of vicious cycle: while political instability hinders economic progress, the inefficiency of the economic system increases social tensions and fuels mistrust between citizens and state authorities.
One glaring effect has been a deterioration in public finances as a result of attempts to stimulate job creation, yet it was highlighted that too little has been done to encourage private investment, especially in small and medium-sized enterprises.
In respect of all these issues, the participants were of the view that the case of Egypt merits special attention by virtue of its size and the series of leadership changes it has undergone since 2011. While it was felt that the overall picture remains uncertain, there was consensus on several points, namely: the strong priority accorded by the majority of Egyptians towards ensuring the unity of the State (represented first and foremost, including for historical reasons, by the armed forces) in the face of the danger of chaos breaking out, but also towards immediately addressing a number of economic issues and the question of the efficient distribution of resources, within the context of a series of reforms of the state apparatus. It was acknowledged that this combination poses a very tough challenge for both authorities and society alike.
Looking at the region as a whole, the participants stressed the importance of encouraging professional and student exchanges as a means of opening up the labor market and facilitating the wider circulation of ideas. Nevertheless, it was suggested that contrary to what is sometimes claimed, the main priority does not seem to be the transfer of knowledge and technology as such, but rather that of linking up Arab societies through more innovative and dynamic economic flows. In this regard, it was underlined that the emphasis should not merely be on conventional delocalization, but on developing more advanced and flexible forms of interdependence.
The argument was put that economic conditions will at any rate change for the better if investments respond to demand rather than following directives imposed from on high (whether by international organizations or governments). Only in this way – it was suggested – can existing opportunities be truly exploited so as to avoid further market distortions. Seen as equally important was the adoption of common standards and certification criteria, apt to facilitate trade and the matching of supply and demand.
The participants further noted that in the key sector of energy, profound changes are taking place: European countries are focusing on diversifying their supply sources (both by geographic origin and by type of energy source), whereas countries on the southern shores of the Mediterranean are concentrating on developing the sector (based on strategies that obviously differ as between net importers and exporters of energy), whilst at the same time attempting to reduce the burden of energy subsidies on State budgets.
The discussions then turned to a consideration of the key role played by the media in open societies, with communications flows seen as increasingly essential for competitiveness. It was acknowledged in this respect that, to date, the majority of Arab countries still suffer from insufficient transparency and media freedom, even though some regional developments have eroded State monopolies over news media.
In rounding up the discussions, it was noted that recent trends have seen a resurgence in locally-based media outlets, following a stage involving the establishment of major pan-Arab networks. The advent of social media is also providing a further dynamic element, which – while its political significance may at times have been overestimated – was viewed as unquestionably contributing to expanding the options for citizens wishing to be better-informed and to verify news sources. With users becoming much more discriminating than in the past, the participants pointed to the resultant positive – even if gradual – effects on public debate in both the socio-political as well as economic arena.
