The survey, commissioned by Aspen Institute Italia, was conducted by the Laboratory for Political and Social Analysis (LAPS) of the Department of Social, Political, and Cognitive Sciences (DISPOC) of the University of Siena between 23 January and 7 February 2023.
The study shows that Italian/American cohesion regarding the Ukraine conflict and its implications has withstood the test of war. Yet, some significant exceptions remain: the difference in stance on military provisions – less than half of the Italian sample were in favor of sending arms to Ukraine – and on Ukrainian membership in NATO and the EU. Evidencing a cultural difference explicitly underscored by the interviewers, the majority of Italians remained reticent about considering war an eventual necessity in the achievement of justice, a concept that instead the overwhelming majority of Americans were convinced of.
Differences also persisted on the relationship between European defense and NATO. Favorable perception of NATO prevailed on both sides of the Atlantic – and even more so than in the past. More than half of those interviewed in both Italy and the United States believed that NATO’s European pillar should be bolstered. Yet, only 24% of the Italians felt the US/Europe partnership needed to be closer, while a relatively broad majority of the Italians interviewed (60%) believed that Europe’s defense objective should be to increase Europe’s autonomy from the United States. Obviously, these responses – on the Italian side – contradict each other. Nevertheless, the general given is that Italian public opinion continues to consider the United States as indispensable in the context of European security even while not believing that the US will remain a dominant superpower.
The invasion of Ukraine has also diminished Italian public opinion’s presumed pro-Russian sympathies. While less than half the Italian sample would have favored the post-conflict isolation of Russia, the majority did not support lifting the sanctions or reviving energy relations with Moscow. The only consistent majority was that in favor of putting Putin and his generals on trial for war crimes at the end of the fighting. On the whole, Russia’s loss of face after a year of waging war appears more than certain.
The Executive Summary of the survey is available here