Data governance and the harvesting and processing of information are important strategic processes with far-reaching consequences, impacting everything from business models to geopolitical balances.
Italy and France have solid relations built on a common history of strong economic and cultural ties. An important addition to those relations is the Quirinale Treaty signed in Rome on November 26. This strengthening of bilateral cooperation is crucial, in the first place, to the future of European economic governance. In the coming months, fiscal policy rules will be written into a revised Stability and Growth Pact within the framework of the French EU presidency. New rules on State Aid will also be outlined along with a framework of reforms needed to make the continent more competitive.
Policies for waging the battle against climate change and for and managing the phenomenon are central to both the post-pandemic economic recovery and to transatlantic relations at this new stage of opportunity for Euro-American cooperation. The slogan adopted by Joe Biden’s 2020 electoral campaign – “Build Back Better” – can be considered overall a highly appropriate approach to the international circumstances that distinguish 2021.
The years 2020-2021 have inevitably been dominated by the pandemic crisis, which is still generating uncertainties on an enormous scale, both directly in terms of the prospects of economic recovery, and indirectly due to the social and political repercussions, some of which may bring highly significant medium- and long-term geopolitical consequences. Here are the main points that emerged in our discussion – not always in unanimous form – among the participants, which we consider to be the key takeaways:
In a global framework filled with uncertainty and marked by several true systemic changes, the still structurally sound transatlantic relationship is undeniably feeling the effect of rising tensions. Both the United States and Europe are subject to strong socio-political forces that are challenging faith in institutions and even the Western model itself – even though clear alternatives have thus far been lacking, and traditional European parties managed to hold out against the anti-establishment and euro-skeptic movements in the recent parliamentary elections.
Prospects for the global system, in economic/financial as much as political/strategic terms, are suffering the lack of a clear-cut ordering principle. There is no doubt that the international order is changing: Fragmentation and insufficient governance are a serious risk, with the rise of problems that cannot be confronted at national, and possibly not even regional level, ranging from financial rules to big data and privacy, and from climate change to migration.
Kicking off proceedings at this International Conference was an acknowledgement that while France and Italy naturally have national priorities that sometimes diverge, they also have shared responsibilities and interests both at the European and the transatlantic level, ranging from making necessary strides on key aspects of eurozone reform to enhancing industrial cooperation, including on matters regarding defense and security. In examining the relationship of the two countries, it was felt that the impact of prevailing global conditions must also be taken fully into account.
Proceedings at this International Conference got underway with an acknowledgement that the increase being witnessed in political risk factors — both in number and intensity — is linked to certain adverse effects of globalization, namely: the perception of growing inequalities, the rapid introduction of new pervasive technologies, the sense by nation-states of loss of control over their own destiny, and the shift in the balances of power between states.
On the occasion of the first conference organized in Washington, DC, by Aspen Institute Italia since the election of President Trump, we discussed the future of the Transatlantic relationship and its current challenges: these are tough times but strong Euro-American ties remain indispensable to European security. The various dimensions of the Transatlantic relationshsip have also been the object of the closed door hoc meetings held on June 6 (“For a new Transatlantic compact: values, interests, p
In taking stock of prevailing business conditions, the participants at this international conference characterized the global economic climate as one marked by a high level of volatility, with closer interconnections and shorter cycles than in the past. While the juggernaut of emerging markets has suffered somewhat of a slowdown, the United States has come out of the crisis that broke in 2008 in better shape than other advanced economies – particularly Europe, though it too has bounced back to near potential growth levels.
The starting premise at this Aspen Dialogue session was that assessing economic, political, and social risks is by definition a hugely difficult task, and that moreover an element of risk is inevitable in market systems, given that they intrinsically hinge on opportunities for profit and innovation. It was noted, however, that the world economy is going through a very volatile phase.
The starting premise of discussions at this International Conference was that there can be no doubt over the internet’s role today, and in the future, as the major driver of growth – just as the automobile was in the past, with its allied infrastructure and linked industries, and with the creation of new social realities, changed habits, and altered lifestyles. It was noted, however, that the digital revolution goes a step further, as the size of this new “engine” is, in fact, ontologically driven.
Opening proceedings at this two-day international conference was the observation that 2014 marked a definitive return to the limelight for geopolitics. The transition towards a more unstable era and the ability of the international, institutional and business communities to cope with it served as the central focus for a debate that also sought to map the new geographic and sector-specific risks at play.
Serving as the opening premise for proceedings at this session of the Aspen Transatlantic Dialogue was the observation that productivity, not employment, will be the engine of the next industrial revolution, and that, despite the difficulties stemming from the prolonged crisis, the anti-decline camp has ample justification for envisioning a future in which manufacturing and industry will continue to play a central role. It was stressed, however, that they can only play such a role by undergoing transformation.
There is a broad consensus on the key issues that will determine the sustainability and efficiency of the eurozone (and the European Union as a whole). These include common mechanisms in Europe, domestic political consensus in the face of the considerable sacrifices imposed on citizens, the functioning of national institutions to introduce necessary reforms; and mutual trust between the member countries.
At this latest edition of the Aspen Transatlantic Dialogue, the participants pointed to recent developments in the United States – with the at-least partial “shutdown” of federal government operations – as highlighting the multiple dysfunction of political systems on both sides of the Atlantic. It was noted that, in the midst of an economic recovery that is uncertain, in some respects fragile, and unquestionably asymmetric (both as between different sectors and between different countries), the efficiency of government decision-making becomes crucial.
The main challenge identified as facing European leaders was that of striking a delicate balance between maintaining domestic political consensus (in the face of strong social tensions) and implementing necessary but painful reforms that almost without exception will only yield positive results in the medium to long term. While the worst of the financial crisis seems to have been overcome, many concerns remain regarding the overall state of Europe’s economies and the EU’s continued viability from a political and institutional standpoint.
Throughout its history, capitalism has shown an outstanding ability to evolve and adapt to changing political and technological environments.
The participants at this Aspen European Dialogue session held in Istanbul observed that the problems being experienced by the euro area in the wake of the financial crisis are linked to certain global trends (particularly movements in commodity prices). These global pressures, it was noted, have in turn triggered or fueled popular uprisings in the Arab world, with glaring socio-political consequences.
The Middle East is an increasingly diverse region where very old problems coexist with genuine opportunities for renewal and socio-economic progress. A powerful driver of change has become the Gulf, thanks to very large financial resources and a willingness to invest in the neighboring countries – as well as beyond, with a special emphasis on East Asia.
