Data governance and the harvesting and processing of information are important strategic processes with far-reaching consequences, impacting everything from business models to geopolitical balances.
Italy and France have solid relations built on a common history of strong economic and cultural ties. An important addition to those relations is the Quirinale Treaty signed in Rome on November 26. This strengthening of bilateral cooperation is crucial, in the first place, to the future of European economic governance. In the coming months, fiscal policy rules will be written into a revised Stability and Growth Pact within the framework of the French EU presidency. New rules on State Aid will also be outlined along with a framework of reforms needed to make the continent more competitive.
The process of EU enlargement has been a major political and strategic success, but it is facing growing problems such as capacity for integration and political consensus among current members.
The September 26 German elections could not but be influenced by the figure of Angela Merkel. Her principal legacy is probably to have been a master crisis manager and a pillar of political stability, but she has not staked her career on promoting a truly comprehensive and ambitious vision for Europe. Even regarding the pursuit of German national interests, an overall assessment of her profile as a leader must take into account several missed opportunities for renewal and perhaps even excessive prudence.
Policies for waging the battle against climate change and for and managing the phenomenon are central to both the post-pandemic economic recovery and to transatlantic relations at this new stage of opportunity for Euro-American cooperation. The slogan adopted by Joe Biden’s 2020 electoral campaign – “Build Back Better” – can be considered overall a highly appropriate approach to the international circumstances that distinguish 2021.
The years 2020-2021 have inevitably been dominated by the pandemic crisis, which is still generating uncertainties on an enormous scale, both directly in terms of the prospects of economic recovery, and indirectly due to the social and political repercussions, some of which may bring highly significant medium- and long-term geopolitical consequences. Here are the main points that emerged in our discussion – not always in unanimous form – among the participants, which we consider to be the key takeaways:
The arrival of a new administration in Washington offers an opportunity to reconsider the broad spectrum of commitments and instruments that NATO uses to pursue its objectives. The Alliance has shown a great capacity for adaptation, but the many challenges of the coming years are going to call for new joint efforts.
The global security context needs to be interpreted and somehow modelled in order to better evaluate NATO’s trajectory and prospects: the international system seems to be caracterized by a form of “aggressive multipolarity”, as well as by a rather disorderly power competition across the spectrum. The US-China question has inevitably taken center stage, although the evolution of this bilateral relationship is far from clear at this stage.
The Covid-19 crisis is rocking the world economy, and in the wake, no less, of an already partially underway “de-globalization” process. The diversification – and possible fragmentation – of the global supply chain presents a major challenge to the Chinese economy, but it is not at all certain that it will have such drastically negative effects on global growth, since there are a great many companies (including some Italian ones) interested today in breaking into the Chinese market, and Chinese companies interested in diversifying trade partnerships.
In a global framework filled with uncertainty and marked by several true systemic changes, the still structurally sound transatlantic relationship is undeniably feeling the effect of rising tensions. Both the United States and Europe are subject to strong socio-political forces that are challenging faith in institutions and even the Western model itself – even though clear alternatives have thus far been lacking, and traditional European parties managed to hold out against the anti-establishment and euro-skeptic movements in the recent parliamentary elections.
Prospects for the global system, in economic/financial as much as political/strategic terms, are suffering the lack of a clear-cut ordering principle. There is no doubt that the international order is changing: Fragmentation and insufficient governance are a serious risk, with the rise of problems that cannot be confronted at national, and possibly not even regional level, ranging from financial rules to big data and privacy, and from climate change to migration.
Kicking off proceedings at this International Conference was an acknowledgement that while France and Italy naturally have national priorities that sometimes diverge, they also have shared responsibilities and interests both at the European and the transatlantic level, ranging from making necessary strides on key aspects of eurozone reform to enhancing industrial cooperation, including on matters regarding defense and security. In examining the relationship of the two countries, it was felt that the impact of prevailing global conditions must also be taken fully into account.
Proceedings at this International Conference got underway with an acknowledgement that the increase being witnessed in political risk factors — both in number and intensity — is linked to certain adverse effects of globalization, namely: the perception of growing inequalities, the rapid introduction of new pervasive technologies, the sense by nation-states of loss of control over their own destiny, and the shift in the balances of power between states.
On the occasion of the first conference organized in Washington, DC, by Aspen Institute Italia since the election of President Trump, we discussed the future of the Transatlantic relationship and its current challenges: these are tough times but strong Euro-American ties remain indispensable to European security. The various dimensions of the Transatlantic relationshsip have also been the object of the closed door hoc meetings held on June 6 (“For a new Transatlantic compact: values, interests, p
In taking stock of prevailing business conditions, the participants at this international conference characterized the global economic climate as one marked by a high level of volatility, with closer interconnections and shorter cycles than in the past. While the juggernaut of emerging markets has suffered somewhat of a slowdown, the United States has come out of the crisis that broke in 2008 in better shape than other advanced economies – particularly Europe, though it too has bounced back to near potential growth levels.
The starting premise at this Aspen Dialogue session was that assessing economic, political, and social risks is by definition a hugely difficult task, and that moreover an element of risk is inevitable in market systems, given that they intrinsically hinge on opportunities for profit and innovation. It was noted, however, that the world economy is going through a very volatile phase.
The starting premise of discussions at this International Conference was that there can be no doubt over the internet’s role today, and in the future, as the major driver of growth – just as the automobile was in the past, with its allied infrastructure and linked industries, and with the creation of new social realities, changed habits, and altered lifestyles. It was noted, however, that the digital revolution goes a step further, as the size of this new “engine” is, in fact, ontologically driven.
Reviving the spirit of Europe means, first and foremost, returning to the roots of the political and cultural project of integration. While maintaining a critical stance with regard to the Union’s current practical shortcomings, we must not forget the exceptional results that have been achieved in terms of rights and guarantees that European citizens today consider normal but which are not at all so in many other parts of the world. In that sense, the ideal and historical dimension must also be combined with a pragmatic vision aimed at the efficient tackling of present priorities.
Opening proceedings at this two-day international conference was the observation that 2014 marked a definitive return to the limelight for geopolitics. The transition towards a more unstable era and the ability of the international, institutional and business communities to cope with it served as the central focus for a debate that also sought to map the new geographic and sector-specific risks at play.
