Caught between US strategic withdrawal, Chinese manufacturing overcapacity and its own weakness, Europe faces 2026 at a crossroads: a year of risks, but also of opportunities to regain control of its destiny.
The continent must measure itself against global players who, although experiencing some difficulties, are reacting to the current environment of growing geoeconomic uncertainty. A key actor here is China, which is pursuing an aggressive export-oriented strategy to offset its domestic difficulties. A gap is emerging in Beijing between official statistics, which have announced GDP growth of 5% for 2025, and more prudent estimates of around 2.7%. But instead of reducing Chinese pressure on world trade, this slowdown is tending to accentuate it. Overcapacity in manufacturing production, which previously could be channeled to the United States, has come up against obstacles created by the Trump administration’s trade policy. But it has found new destinations. This leaves European manufacturing economies, Italy first and foremost, even more exposed to the risk of deindustrialization.