At the same time as the China-US Strategic and Economic Dialogue, a seminar was held in Milan with Edward Tse, Booz & Company’s Chairman for Greater China and one of the major experts on the Chinese market. The meeting was an opportunity to discuss the economic context businesses find in China, as well as the Chinese government’s main choices in this phase of serious international gravity.
The Conference got underway with a general discussion on a fundamental question: in the new world order, is Europe’s importance destined to wane – no matter what? Leaving aside the impact of major international trends (such as demographic changes), which have reduced the relative influence of the EU in objective terms, the participants pointed to various internal factors as constituting constraints on Europe’s potential. First and foremost of these is the difficulty of reconciling the sovereignty of the various Member States with the authority of Brussels.
Aspen Institute Italia organized the “China, Europe, U.S. Trialogue” jointly with Aspen USA and the Central School of the Communist Party, in cooperation with the Fondazione Italia Cina, on December 2-3 in Beijing.
Given the current uncertainty over the global economy’s recovery, interest in the prospects of the South American continent, which seems finally able to express its true potential, has increased. All too often the expectations over the EU / Latin American accords have been set too high. Today, the increase in commercial and financial exchange are guided by a bottom-up logic; promising forms of interdependence are emerging in a pragmatic way and are producing concrete benefits.
The starting point for the discussions at this event was scientific method, with an emphasis on the complex and often problematic interaction of the “exact” sciences with politics and, more particularly, with the media – an indispensable vehicle for getting through to the general public and hence, indirectly, to leaders. It was stressed that complete adherence by physicists and biologists to professional ethics is essential if knowledge is to be used properly in addressing many social and economic problems.
On the eve of the G8 summit in L’Aquila, this workshop examined the various aspects of sustainable development in light of the commitments made by the major economic powers in recent years and current priorities.
The participants took note of the serious overall lack of effective governance, which has been particularly highlighted over the past two decades by the profound transformations that have taken place in the international order – starting with economic growth and demographic trends.
This talk-debate session focused on early signs of a global economic recovery. Whilst the light at the end of the tunnel may not yet be clearly visible, some important signals are already starting to emerge. The first of these is that the governments of EU countries have acted in a timely and effectively coordinated manner. Indeed, their actions have confirmed the primacy of the political sphere and an intergovernmental approach over action through EU institutions (and the European Commission in particular).
Created by the implosion of the US financial system, the last of the “bubbles” – that of the housing market – is the culmination of over a decade of shortsighted American monetary policies and an inadequate monitoring system. The situation is particularly grave, with forecasts that world growth will fall from 5% in 2007 to little more than 1% in 2009. As yet, it is not possible to predict how long the recession will last.
This informal dinner event, organized by Aspen Institute Italia, focused on global governance issues and involved the participation – as guest speakers – of Joseph Stiglitz, economist and professor at Columbia University and Nobel Laureate, Jean-Paul Fitoussi, President of the OFCE in Paris, Meghnad Desai, Professor Emeritus at the London School of Economics, and Rakesh Mohan, Deputy Governor of the Reserve Bank of India.
The financial markets are in great difficulty and the world economy is going through troubled times. The current crisis has brought about profound social and cultural change. Never in the past have people and nations with histories and cultures so diverse expressed the same desire for certainty and called for a shared system of rules.
This event was part of the broader Aspen for the G-8 project, dedicated to Italy’s presidency of the G-8. The project aims to contribute to the formulation of guidelines for G-8 action characterized by coordinated efforts between the public and private sectors.
The crisis currently in progress is exceptional for many reasons, including the fact that it seems to be the culmination of a series of rapid-growth phenomena. The globalization of the 1990s, while producing many positive effects, was too fast and was not accompanied by a sufficient adaptation of the major multilateral institutions, the rules (especially in the financial sector) and the world monetary system itself.
The Conference discussion focused on the overall international scenario that may emerge after the worst of the economic crisis has passed. A fundamental question arises concerning the nature of the restructure currently in progress. Does it represent a new paradigm for global capitalism or, less ambitiously, is it just a partial reorganization based on more cautious attitudes and expectations?
This international workshop, dedicated to the issue of the sustainability of health systems in the face of an ageing population, highlighted the fact that the phenomenon affects all countries, whether developed or developing. Since the middle of the 19th century, life expectancy at birth in all industrialized nations has doubled and, in some cases, more than doubled. At the same time, birth rates and fertility rates have fallen and, in Western countries, have dropped to a quarter of their levels at the beginning of the 20th century.
The concept of “human security” revolves around bettering overall conditions – not just security but economic conditions – for people in a crisis or post-conflict area. It demands, therefore, the setting of different priorities as regards more traditional concepts of national security, state building and nation building.
This conference was launched in memory of all that Giovanni Agnelli gave to strengthen relations between the United States and Italy. Discussion went on to focus on two specific demands: one the one hand, the importance of safeguarding the positive aspects of transatlantic relations’ long history and, on the other, the need to constantly adapt policy and discussions to novel challenges.These early years of the twenty-first century have already shown clear signs of change – in some cases radical change – in areas such as the very structure of the international system.
The international workshop focused particularly on the debate currently underway inside Russia, which sees various schools of thought playing a key role despite the regime’s tight control over political dissent and the media. There was a broad consensus among the participants regarding the main achievement of Putin’s presidency, namely, that of having consolidated the position of the central State and of having exploited energy revenues to increase the economic – and, in part, political – influence of the country on the international stage.
Evaluating the turnover between Vladimir Putin and Dmitri Medvedev at the presidency requires a recognition of the central role that Putin continues to occupy on the Russian political scene. It seems indeed clear that the structure of power in Moscow has remained fundamentally unchanged, although it is possible that Medvedev will walk the path of cautious liberal reforms.The next few years will see, in any case, further efforts to fully exploit the instrument of energy resources and currency reserves at the country’s disposal.
Bilateral relations between Italy and Israel have intensified recently, producing some promising results, though, for the big strategic questions and economic issues, broader EU involvement is key. Partially due to 9/11, interest in the underlying motives behind problems in the Middle East and Mediterranean region has grown, and increased attention has revealed the importance of social factors and domestic policy. Such an approach highlights the singular characteristics of Israel, a country which stands out as a sort of outpost for the West in the region.
Discussion here touched on the significant slowdown of America’s economy. Theories to explain this turn of events abound: from the real estate bubble to the sub-prime housing crisis, to more general imbalances. Participants focused on the financial sector, but the dynamics of prices – both for the producer and for the consumer – were also a subject of interest.
