Aspen Institute Italia organized the “China, Europe, U.S. Trialogue” jointly with Aspen USA and the Central School of the Communist Party, in cooperation with the Fondazione Italia Cina, on December 2-3 in Beijing.
Given the current uncertainty over the global economy’s recovery, interest in the prospects of the South American continent, which seems finally able to express its true potential, has increased. All too often the expectations over the EU / Latin American accords have been set too high. Today, the increase in commercial and financial exchange are guided by a bottom-up logic; promising forms of interdependence are emerging in a pragmatic way and are producing concrete benefits.
This event was part of the broader Aspen for the G-8 project, dedicated to Italy’s presidency of the G-8. The project aims to contribute to the formulation of guidelines for G-8 action characterized by coordinated efforts between the public and private sectors.
The crisis currently in progress is exceptional for many reasons, including the fact that it seems to be the culmination of a series of rapid-growth phenomena. The globalization of the 1990s, while producing many positive effects, was too fast and was not accompanied by a sufficient adaptation of the major multilateral institutions, the rules (especially in the financial sector) and the world monetary system itself.
The Conference discussion focused on the overall international scenario that may emerge after the worst of the economic crisis has passed. A fundamental question arises concerning the nature of the restructure currently in progress. Does it represent a new paradigm for global capitalism or, less ambitiously, is it just a partial reorganization based on more cautious attitudes and expectations?
The starting point for the discussions at this event was scientific method, with an emphasis on the complex and often problematic interaction of the “exact” sciences with politics and, more particularly, with the media – an indispensable vehicle for getting through to the general public and hence, indirectly, to leaders. It was stressed that complete adherence by physicists and biologists to professional ethics is essential if knowledge is to be used properly in addressing many social and economic problems.
This conference was launched in memory of all that Giovanni Agnelli gave to strengthen relations between the United States and Italy. Discussion went on to focus on two specific demands: one the one hand, the importance of safeguarding the positive aspects of transatlantic relations’ long history and, on the other, the need to constantly adapt policy and discussions to novel challenges.These early years of the twenty-first century have already shown clear signs of change – in some cases radical change – in areas such as the very structure of the international system.
Bilateral relations between Italy and Israel have intensified recently, producing some promising results, though, for the big strategic questions and economic issues, broader EU involvement is key. Partially due to 9/11, interest in the underlying motives behind problems in the Middle East and Mediterranean region has grown, and increased attention has revealed the importance of social factors and domestic policy. Such an approach highlights the singular characteristics of Israel, a country which stands out as a sort of outpost for the West in the region.
The participants analyzed the scenario that has emerged in America since the elections of November 2008 as well as the likely prospects for American foreign policy, the changing relationship between the State and the market in light of the global economic crisis and the geopolitical situation regarding energy resources.
The yearly conference offers an important moment to reflect on the prevailing trends of the world economy in the medium and long term. The 2007 edition examined the question of the weaker dollar as a way of analyzing prospects for the euro and global financial relations. Discussion revolved around the weakened US currency and whether it will remain the pivot of the international monetary system. At the same time, participants looked at the strength of the euro and its rapid growth as a world reserve currency.
The Conference described and analyzed proposals for generational turnover in Italy and Europe. Participants focused on fostering merit in the areas of economics, politics and academia. Regarding generational turnover, proposals included lowering the active and passive voting age in the Senate, and limiting the number of terms in office they may seek (as with mayors in Italy).
The conference “Constructing the Euro-Mediterranean Space: where are we headed?” dealt with the political, economic and technological divide that currently persists between the northern and southern shores of the Mediterranean, and the effect these gaps will have once the region becomes a “free trade area”, in 2010. Much of the discussion was dedicated to consideration of the Mediterranean Union (MU), a “variable geometry” organism to be launched in June 2008 and which should breathe new life into Euro-Mediterranean cooperation.
Aspen Italia’s annual Transatlantic Dialogue focused this year on persistent widespread instability in the Middle East. Various ideas for pragmatic solutions were proposed, though no strikingly positive developments were foreseen any time soon. The first day of debate focused on interdependency between free trade and democratization in a strategic framework, and in particular on gradually opening markets and reforming governments.
The Institute’s annual appointment to discuss the global economy concentrated on major challenges facing the international economic community this year. The meeting opened with a discussion of imbalances between “big savers” and “big spenders” in a phase of fluid geopolitical shifts throughout the world. Attention was focussed on the dynamic Asian markets – not just in China and India, but in a recovering Japan – throughout the conference. Even in the sessions dedicated to energy supply and security, Asia remained a protagonist.
The Aspen Dialogue on World Economy, each year, reflects on prevalent trends both in the medium and long term. In 2005, the conference took place just one day after the tragic terrorist attacks in London. Participants, thus, focussed on the pressures weighing down on Western economies both from the uncertainties and insecurities inspired by renewed violent international terrorism, and from the emergence of important new players on the international scene (specifically China, India, Russia and Brazil).
