China’s economic outlook
Fan Gang
Director, National Economic Research Institute, China Reform Foundation
China in the post-Covid order: implications for the EU and Italian business interests
The Covid-19 crisis is rocking the world economy, and in the wake, no less, of an already partially underway “de-globalization” process. The diversification – and possible fragmentation – of the global supply chain presents a major challenge to the Chinese economy, but it is not at all certain that it will have such drastically negative effects on global growth, since there are a great many companies (including some Italian ones) interested today in breaking into the Chinese market, and Chinese companies interested in diversifying trade partnerships.
The future of energy market
David Livingston
Deputy Director Climate and Advanced Energy, Atlantic Council
The Pandemic and the power sector
An overall energy transition is under way, and has been for several years despite significant structural obstacles and cyclical ups and downs. The ongoing pandemic and the related economic slowdown have come at a critical juncture in this respect. Today’s situation has highlighted a connection between GDP levels, population density and the impact of Covid-19 infections – likely through air quality – as manifested in various areas of Northern Italy and probably elsewhere.
The world post Covid-19
The Covid-19 pandemic has brought the world to the edge of a new frontier, and underscored the urgency need to redesign economic systems and development models, opting for what the new European Commission has described as greener and more sustainable and inclusive approaches. China, where it all started, has been the first nation to succeed in controlling and preventing the pandemic.
Italy, Europe and India: building a post-covid economy
The world is in the midst of an unprecedented health and economic crisis, and there seems to be a vacuum in global leadership (certainly of US leadership). No single country can offer an effective recipe for resolution. The EU, at least, has recently demonstrated the ability to come together and agree on a large economic support package, but there remains a need for coordination at an even broader level. This, in turn, may require a consensus on common standards, from fair trade to scientific cooperation to specific health issues.
The Europe-Russia Forum
The dialogue between the EU and Russia has practically come to a halt over the past few years, for various reasons. Official EU policy includes the concept of “selective engagement”, which now presents an opportunity in light of relevant common interests in the context of the growing US-China clash. All EU members and Russia favour a continuation of the multilateral system in key areas, such as international trade and technological cooperation – the latter having become a precondition for effective policies in almost any sector.
The Transatlantic future beyond Covid
Coping with the pandemic and the socio-economic effects of the lockdown is a tough test of the resilience of transatlantic relations at a substantially unstable global moment.
Gli Stati Uniti alla prova di COVID-19
The pandemic has caught the United States at a delicate pre-electoral moment. The incumbent president is counting heavily on solid and sustained economic growth, while the Democratic Party is offering an alternative at least partly founded on a larger government role in income distribution and in providing essential services – including healthcare.
Assessing risk: business in global disorder
Prospects for the global system, in economic/financial as much as political/strategic terms, are suffering the lack of a clear-cut ordering principle. There is no doubt that the international order is changing: Fragmentation and insufficient governance are a serious risk, with the rise of problems that cannot be confronted at national, and possibly not even regional level, ranging from financial rules to big data and privacy, and from climate change to migration.
National identities around the world
While certainly not exhaustive, this summary clearly reveals one of the principle reasons for the European crisis and the current tensions between the EU and national identities that has raised its ugly head thanks to sovereigntist and populist pressures. Excessive focus on the rules, especially by an increasingly weaker Commission, further distances the development of a politically empowered community system; at the same time, distancing citizens from institutions and revealing how low governments’ faith in each other is.
Geopolitics, Economics and Ethics of artificial Intelligence
Enormous investments have been going into artificial intelligence for some time now. In some cases the returns have been unclear; neither are we entirely sure what artificial intelligence, machine learning and algorithms are, or what the difference between them is. What is certain, however, is that the future of the economy and of the society is inextricably bound to this new technological revolution.
Culture, information and competition: identity and multipolar governance
Concomitant with the adoption of more stringent European copyright rules, any discussion of innovation and competition in the information sector necessarily involves examination of the current digital revolution. The instruments of governance inherited from the traditional sectors of publishing and telecommunications no longer suffice to deal either with the changes under way or the high concentration of market shares and financial resources in the hands of so few: large scale platforms and major American and Asian digital operators (in terms both of hardware and software).
A new winter for the global economy? Geopolitical and financial risks
The US economy continues to show signs of very strong and wide-based growth, although a few indicators suggest possible problems going forward. A relatively optimistic view points to the fact that there are no significant financial imbalances – especially since companies are doing well. Historically, unless the real estate sector is directly involved in a crisis of confidence, even significant equity market corrections do not cause recessions. The housing market has indeed slowed, but only to the degree that this was expected, and current prices appear to be sustainable.
Assessing risk: business in global disorder
Proceedings at this International Conference got underway with an acknowledgement that the increase being witnessed in political risk factors — both in number and intensity — is linked to certain adverse effects of globalization, namely: the perception of growing inequalities, the rapid introduction of new pervasive technologies, the sense by nation-states of loss of control over their own destiny, and the shift in the balances of power between states.
Building a new silk road: Sicily’s role
Kicking off discussions at this National Conference was the observation that southern Italy’s ports, intermodal facilities, and adjacent hinterland areas have a strategic opportunity within their grasp, with Mediterranean routes now serving as crossroads for global traffic. It was felt, however, that in order to seize these opportunities, medium and long-term choices need to be made, with a commitment at the governmental level to ensure that the right incentives, an apposite regulatory framework, and a coherent vision for pursuing Italy’s economic interests are all in place.
The future of energy: innovation, technology and geopolitics
The vast energy transition under way goes well beyond ratcheting up the use of renewables, as much as that is essential for obvious environmental reasons. The shift in that direction is currently a gradual one that, however, in the coming years is going to reach a watershed point at which, once the cost of new sources drops considerably below that of hydrocarbon products, the changes already ongoing will speed up.
Trump in action: America first from words to deeds
The idea embodied in the expression “America first” represents powerful forces in American society.
How global power is shifting: stakes and priorities for Italy
The international system is at a highly uncertain stage of transition, both in terms of the economy and of politics and security. Following the acceleration in growth and trade (in part, certainly positive) owing to the globalization mainly of the 1990s, a series of tensions have become manifest in the form of regional crises and global instability. Profound technological changes – those macroscopic in the financial sector, but not only – have had a direct effect on the social structure of individual states and on balances of power.