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Russia’s invasion of Ukraine may be the harbinger of future threats rather than an exception, unfortunately. Yet some features of the conflict – especially in (…)Assessing risk: business in global disorder
In un quadro di sicurezza internazionale molto incerto, e con un “ordine globale” (di marca occidentale) oggi apertamente contestato da più parti, nuove fonti di instabilità economica sono emerse recentemente.
The years 2020-2021 have inevitably been dominated by the pandemic crisis, which is still generating uncertainties on an enormous scale, both directly in terms of the prospects of economic recovery, and indirectly due to the social and political repercussions, some of which may bring highly significant medium- and long-term geopolitical consequences. Here are the main points that emerged in our discussion – not always in unanimous form – among the participants, which we consider to be the key takeaways:
Prospects for the global system, in economic/financial as much as political/strategic terms, are suffering the lack of a clear-cut ordering principle. There is no doubt that the international order is changing: Fragmentation and insufficient governance are a serious risk, with the rise of problems that cannot be confronted at national, and possibly not even regional level, ranging from financial rules to big data and privacy, and from climate change to migration.
Proceedings at this International Conference got underway with an acknowledgement that the increase being witnessed in political risk factors — both in number and intensity — is linked to certain adverse effects of globalization, namely: the perception of growing inequalities, the rapid introduction of new pervasive technologies, the sense by nation-states of loss of control over their own destiny, and the shift in the balances of power between states.
In taking stock of prevailing business conditions, the participants at this international conference characterized the global economic climate as one marked by a high level of volatility, with closer interconnections and shorter cycles than in the past. While the juggernaut of emerging markets has suffered somewhat of a slowdown, the United States has come out of the crisis that broke in 2008 in better shape than other advanced economies – particularly Europe, though it too has bounced back to near potential growth levels.
The starting premise at this Aspen Dialogue session was that assessing economic, political, and social risks is by definition a hugely difficult task, and that moreover an element of risk is inevitable in market systems, given that they intrinsically hinge on opportunities for profit and innovation. It was noted, however, that the world economy is going through a very volatile phase.
Opening proceedings at this two-day international conference was the observation that 2014 marked a definitive return to the limelight for geopolitics. The transition towards a more unstable era and the ability of the international, institutional and business communities to cope with it served as the central focus for a debate that also sought to map the new geographic and sector-specific risks at play.
