What does Russia Think? Politics of ideas and policy choices

The international workshop focused particularly on the debate currently underway inside Russia, which sees various schools of thought playing a key role despite the regime’s tight control over political dissent and the media. There was a broad consensus among the participants regarding the main achievement of Putin’s presidency, namely, that of having consolidated the position of the central State and of having exploited energy revenues to increase the economic – and, in part, political – influence of the country on the international stage. According to one view, these developments should now make a greater degree of institutionalization, even of a democratic (or at least representative) nature, and a series of gradual reforms possible. Another view, however, sees a lost opportunity for real modernization of the bureaucracy, the business sphere (especially the managerial class) and Russian society itself.To all intents and purposes, the country seems to be moving towards a political structure which does not correspond to any pre-established model. Nevertheless, some essential features of the vision that today prevails among the Russian leadership calls to mind the European nation-states of the 19th and 20th centuries, so that it can be said that “the future of Russia lies in Europe’s past, not in its present”. In particular, it is a vision that is heavily colored by sovereignty, which privileges autonomy from the outside world over liberal or laissez-faire notions of power within the country. This is the meaning of the term “sovereign democracy”, which seems to have been at the heart of a number of fundamental choices made by Vladimir Putin. As regards the new Medvedev-Putin “co-tenancy” as president and prime minister respectively, many believe that the reins of power remain in the hands of Putin for the moment, although there may be a certain degree of institutional competition. However, pragmatic rather than ideological or preconceived solutions are likely to prevail, as incidentally seems to be the case with the entire administration of the country.Turning to external affairs, Moscow’s foreign policy has been and will remain heavily geared towards reestablishing a solid position both in Eastern Europe and Central Asia, with special attention being paid to American policies on high-profile areas within the region, including, naturally, Afghanistan and Iran. At the same time, the relationship with Europe will be crucial in terms of the overall evolution of Russia, if for no other reason than their vast shared “neighborhood” and certain major shared challenges, including demographic trends, environmental deterioration, international terrorism and the risks of high economic instability on a global scale.