Russia and the future of Europe’s energy

Evaluating the turnover between Vladimir Putin and Dmitri Medvedev at the presidency requires a recognition of the central role that Putin continues to occupy on the Russian political scene. It seems indeed clear that the structure of power in Moscow has remained fundamentally unchanged, although it is possible that Medvedev will walk the path of cautious liberal reforms.The next few years will see, in any case, further efforts to fully exploit the instrument of energy resources and currency reserves at the country’s disposal. In the meantime, Russian civil society remains largely favourable to a leadership which ensures stability and economic growth, even more than rising international clout for the country.In terms of Russian-European relations, a pragmatic attitude is generally prevailing (even in the absence of a genuine and deep sense of mutual trust), while the future of Russian-American relations remains more uncertain. Although the episodes of temporary cutoff of energy supplies to Ucraine have inevitably attracted great attention, the problem of energy security should be seen in light of the mutual interest in guaranteeing adequate supply. More generally, the close ties of interdependence have become extensive and are thus largely shielded from the ups and downs in the international climate. Serious unresolved problems do persist, such as the possible contagion effect between the economic and the security sectors (as in the case of the successive enlargements of NATO and anti-missile defence) or possible frictions between Russia’s renewed nationalist ambitions and the widening of the EU’s sphere of influence in its own “neighbourhood” to the East and Southeast. In addition, the question of Kosovo and US initiatives to directly penetrate in Central-Eastern Europe, in the Caucasus and in Central Asia, could lead to a deterioration of diplomatic relations which seems in nobody’s interest.There was a recognition of continuing difficulties on the road to a common European approach in the energy sector, despite numerous statements of intent in this regard. The bilateral negotiating channels between the major industrial actors are still predominant and systematically obtain political support from the respective governments. The criterion of reciprocity, though not a panacea, can constitute a fundamental instrument to facilitate the gradual development of a more effective contractual and normative framework.