For the first time, recovery and optimism dominated the debate at this year’s Aspen Seminar for Leaders “Focus on Industry” session. Against the backdrop of an economic climate that has finally returned to growth, the seminar participants dwelt more on the strengths of the Italian system and the opportunities to be seized than on the country’s systemic weaknesses and lost opportunities. While acknowledging that the international scenario is unfavorable, with the headwinds of protectionism blowing from Trump’s America, it was highlighted that global trade is still ongoing. The age of the great multilateral treaties appears to have come to an end, as evidenced by the uncompleted WTO Doha Round, but the treaties already in place seem sufficient to ensure the buoyancy of international trade, albeit not at the levels seen in the years prior to the crisis.
The redrawn maps of industrial development see Italy favorably placed, thanks to a recovery in exports and the excellent performance of Italian firms. Yet it was stressed that although the latter have embarked on the road of digitalization and Industry 4.0, this will not alone suffice. In a global market of titans, whether they be nations or companies, the only relevant arena within which to formulate trade and industrial policies becomes the European one. Faced with the challenges posed by colossal multinationals instituted elsewhere and capable of exerting immense digital and market power, an approach which holds that “small is beautiful” seems less and less effectual. After years in the shade, industrial policy is making a comeback.
The participants also questioned whether Industry 4.0 might be the biggest German marketing contrivance of recent years, or whether it might not be more accurate to talk of Enterprise 4.0 rather than Industry 4.0. The discussion then turned to an examination of what the future might hold for human-machine interactions in the context of digital factories whose latest development is artificial intelligence. It was observed that the interplay between man and machine risks turning into a contest between humans and machines, as automation carries profound impacts for the labor market. First of all, there is the radical shift in the type of skills profiles required: fewer manual laborers and more engineers are needed in digital factories. Secondly, training must keep pace in order not to be rendered obsolete. This calls for not only universities but also primary and secondary schools that, in addition to imparting knowledge, are also capable of instilling more adaptable and soft skills.
Ultimately, it was judged that Industry 4.0 is not just some German marketing invention, but an important opportunity for the country to seize. In this regard, Italy was viewed as a country which, in the dual stakes of building blocks versus piggybacking elements, seems to excel in the latter though also possessing strengths in the former. A country too where so many things are moving in the right direction, but where just as many other things still need to be accomplished, such as in the areas of tangible and intangible infrastructure, technology transfer between research institutes, firms, and universities, and interactions between local systems and businesses. In the age of Industry 4.0, it was urged that the question is no longer how many and which trains were or might be missed, but rather, what station can be built to win the challenge of Italy 4.0.