Once upon a time, there was GDP. Or rather, once there was “just” GDP, understood as an aggregate indicator used to measure a country’s economic growth by quantifying the flow of goods and services for end-use and produced within a certain period of time in a given territory.
The Middle East is an increasingly diverse region where very old problems coexist with genuine opportunities for renewal and socio-economic progress. A powerful driver of change has become the Gulf, thanks to very large financial resources and a willingness to invest in the neighboring countries – as well as beyond, with a special emphasis on East Asia.
The comeback being staged by atomic energy is currently a hot topic of debate in many countries around the world, just as it is in Italy. During this roundtable discussion devoted to the issue, official figures were cited confirming the ferment of activity in this sector, with 65 new nuclear power plants under construction in 16 different countries. According to some of the participants in attendance, there are many technical, economic and geopolitical factors which justify the nuclear option for Italy, whilst others went further, describing it as an almost “inevitable” choice.
Aspen Institute Italia organized the “China, Europe, U.S. Trialogue” jointly with Aspen USA and the Central School of the Communist Party, in cooperation with the Fondazione Italia Cina, on December 2-3 in Beijing.
The Friends of Aspen held their twelfth annual meeting in the newly-restored Salone Barozzi at the Milan Institute for the Blind. At the opening of proceedings, the group’s latest members were introduced, a brief account was given of the group’s activities over the past year, and a range of matters raised by group members were discussed, including the choice of discussion topic for the next annual conference to be held in the spring.
The discussion at this roundtable session got underway with the incisive observation that managing and exploiting a vast and valuable cultural heritage requires a well-thought-out cultural policy, and a continual balance to be struck between preservation and economic development, between making use of this asset and ensuring it is not “used up”, and between the conservation of ancient artistic works and nurturing contemporary art.
Proceedings at this roundtable session got underway with the participants observing that an aging population, immigration and the brain drain are issues that Italy needs to address by looking to the future as well as at the past. Indeed, the current state of affairs is the product of previous trends. In decades gone by, there was a surplus of births over deaths and a negative migration balance, but today that situation has been reversed.
“Today, people are much more crucial to competitiveness than in the past; and when you talk about people, you’re talking about values”. This observation by Ennio Presutti, entrepreneur and manager who was one of the co-founders of Aspen Institute Italia, provided the starting point for a debate focusing on new models for effective and ethical leadership in a globalized world.
The complexities of the current global macroeconomic situation are pushing the world economy in many different directions. The US is undertaking a second round of quantitative easing in order to buy protection against a deflationary risk. China is slowly allowing the RMB to appreciate while preparing the next 5 year plan as it transitions from an economy with unlimited resources and limited interactions with the rest to the world into an economy that is starting to feel a deteriorating growth/inflation trade off and is becoming a key player in international trade and markets.
This seminar got underway with the participants noting that the Italian industrial system has succeeded in weathering the global crisis whilst maintaining the country’s position as a leading manufacturer both in Europe and worldwide. The more or less stable performance of the Italian production system has enabled the economy to respond to stimulus, though the signs of recovery remain weak.
This session focused on the crucial role played by infrastructure in any given country’s economic development. It was observed that an adequate endowment of tangible infrastructure is a necessary prerequisite for competing in the global market, and that boosting infrastructure levels is an undeniable priority both for Italy and for Europe. The question of trans-European infrastructure is especially gaining increasing importance.
This session of the Aspen Seminars for Leaders examined various institutional scenarios, viewed from the perspective of changes taking place at the European and global level and the reform processes that these call for within Italy. It was observed that, on the one hand, the search for more stable global macroeconomic balances has been accompanied by European debate concerning the tightening of fiscal regulation, changes to the Growth and Stability Pact, and putting in place adequate mechanisms to deal with emergency situations.
In this seminar, the participants examined what were identified as the major areas requiring action to enable Italy to face the new and increasingly impelling global challenges. The three areas singled out were: innovation policies, tangible and intangible knowledge-system infrastructure, and education models conducive to promoting employment and competitiveness.
The discussion in this session focused on the role of culture in the wake of the global crisis. In this regard, the participants highlighted the increasing search for a more harmonious, sustainable and forward-looking social model, yet one that is anchored in the roots of national identity. With the global crisis, this quest for a new kind of paradigm of development has, even in Italy, once again focused what perhaps was otherwise languishing interest on the crucial importance of “culture”.
The participants launched proceedings at this National Conference with the observation that the role of technical and professional training institutes, once the powerhouse of the postwar economic boom in Italy, has been steadily declining since the early 1970s, with enrollment numbers falling inexorably. The result is that, today, these key components of Italy’s education system are no longer capable of supporting the country’s economic development, nor of keeping pace with technological advances.
The challenges, opportunities and constraints facing future generations is the recurring theme of the Aspen Junior Fellow Breakfasts, examined from an international perspective. In this breakfast debate, it was acknowledged that Europe, despite the level of prosperity, social cohesion and intellectual output it has achieved, is progressively offering fewer opportunities than other geographical areas.
The members of the first panel analyzed the multiple repercussions of the crisis that began in 2008 on the Western economies, as well as on their political systems and societies. The impact has been profound, putting in question the growth model and the sustainability of the welfare state in its current forms. Major tensions have also emerged between short term needs – such as the bailouts – and longer term goals. The very close link between modern states and capitalism, which in the Western world is captured by the expression “market democracy”, has become more evident than in the past.
