Donald Trump and Joe Biden are once again the leading contenders for the White House. The question is obvious: how is it that the American democratic system has not been able to bring change to the electoral face-off for the year 2024, even in generational terms? One answer could be that it has been precisely these two presidents who have been most instrumental in changing the course of the United States over the last 40 years. Under these two post-global-era leaders, wedged between the crisis in globalization and the pandemic scourge, politics has come back to the forefront: in its most populist version with Donald Trump, and with Joe Biden’s neo-Keynesian approach to industrial policy. The two are united, in any case, in identifying a common foe – China – with whom geopolitical competition has become increasingly fierce.
Recent polls give Donald Trump a slight edge (from 1 to 2.5%) in swing states such as Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin that are pivotal to the Biden campaign. The first televised debate will take place in a somewhat unusual manner compared with others, i.e., in advance of the two Conventions during the month of June. In the same month of June, Trump has several important appointments with justice: something not central to the campaign but whose repercussions could work in Biden’s favor.
Emerging among the hot topics on voters’ minds is abortion, a strong point on which democrats have invested between 50 and 90% in campaign ads in swing states. Surely complicating things for democrats is the problem of immigration: Joe Biden’s more “humanitarian” approach, while fair from the ethical standpoint is proving to be a boomerang as more and more immigrants flow into the U.S. and strain the borders of Mexico. Clearly this makes for a very serious situation that Biden is going to be forced to address in these last six months of the campaign. Equally problematic for the democracy is the delicate question of the Middle East war and especially the situation in Gaza, which has spawned the formation of a very vocal democratic front on university campuses and elsewhere against the president’s policies.
Much of the electoral confrontation will play out on the economic front. First of all, the American voter seems not to be perceiving the beneficial effects of Biden’s strategies in support, for instance, of investments and industrial policy measures. In excess of 70% of the population does not appreciate the way the economy is going; it is estimated that an initial period of post-pandemic growth of 4% will be followed by a “soft landing” with growth below 2%, or even less, when instead a minimum of 3% would be needed to break-even.
Whichever way you look at it, the main economic concern is inflation, which currently stands at 4%; and it’s no good taking the word of those who consider it under control as a result of increased wages, because it is undeniable that Americans have lost from 30 to 40% of their purchasing power. The cost of three important items in the middle-class household budget – homes, gasoline and food – have risen exponentially: mortgages have gone from 2 to 8%, gasoline costs around 40% more and food prices have almost doubled. According to some observers, the fact remains that the future of the American economy will be determined mainly by inflation.
On the international scene, both candidates acknowledge the bitter confrontation with China, especially with regard to intellectual property, from which America’s draws its greatest advantage, but their positions on other themes diverge. Joe Biden would maintain political dialogue with the EU on both trade and foreign policy. Donald Trump’s trade policies, on the other hand, would be more aggressive and tend to divide Europeans; he would also insist that they increase defense spending, thereby freeing the US of what he considers a burdensome and unprofitable military and financial commitment. Thus, the new European leadership will be called upon to redefine and strengthen transatlantic relations, which cannot but continue to be a pillar in the Old World’s international choices.