The end of globalization—the final utopia of the twentieth century—has dragged the world into an age of fragmentation, with profound consequences for international relations, the economy, and society. This epochal shift has affected all global players, but Europe finds itself at the most critical juncture of this transition, squeezed between the strategic withdrawal of the United States and the rise of China, all while confronting its own structural weaknesses.
Europeans are called, first and foremost, to understand and manage their relationship with their historic American ally. One year into its term, the Trump administration is at a crossroads: immigration decisions are alienating part of the moderate Republican base and independents. Furthermore, the president’s foreign policy positions are unsettling the MAGA front. The MAGA movement has been caught off guard by the abandonment of neo-isolationist tendencies in favor of an interventionism on multiple fronts—Venezuela, Greenland, and potentially Iran—that appears to outline a sort of American neo-imperialism.
The Greenland issue is central to the evolution of transatlantic relations; while the Atlantic alliance has emerged damaged, it is not irremediably compromised. The position taken by Europe is a new signal of a strategy that can work in dealings with Washington: a mixed model of collaboration where possible and a firm hand where necessary. Furthermore, Europeans must understand the Trump administration’s vision for the continent. The MAGA wing harbors open hostility toward the European project, viewing it as too liberal and secular, compounded by accusations of substantial free riding regarding security. Donald Trump’s approach, however, has often proven more pragmatic and geared to gain commercial advantages over ideological ones.
In this scenario, the most effective strategy consists of taking the initiative with concrete proposals, reducing the perception of European dependence even before structuring broader actions toward true strategic autonomy. The Union, albeit slowly, is moving in the right direction: defense Eurobonds, first proposed by Italy in 2003, are finally becoming a reality after twenty years. Indeed, a unified foreign and defense policy represents a crucial and widely shared aspect of the Ventotene Manifesto, though the economic one has been at the center of the Italian political debate. Europe can and must also advance in other fields, such as capital markets and energy, by taking concrete action and abandoning its characteristic regulatory excesses. In this age of fragmentation, the alternative is clear: if every effort is not made to control one’s destiny, decline is inevitable. On the trade front, a change of course is already underway, as evidenced by recent agreements with India.
The energy issue remains vital in this era, particularly for a manufacturing economy like Italy’s. Electricity demand is projected to double in the country by 2050, and this poses new challenges. Alongside high energy costs, there will clearly be an impact on the industrial system. This is a matter of security of supply that must be addressed through more effective European cooperation to reduce the growing risks of internal competition between member states.
Another crucial theme for Europe, and Italy in particular, is technology, especially in the competition with the US and China. Having lost ground in the infrastructural phase of Artificial Intelligence does not mean Europe must relinquish a role in its applications. In this regard, Italy is already putting forward proposals to define new standards for digital manufacturing ecosystems, leveraging the vast fabric of small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) which hold enormous data potential for generating high-value applications. After all, there is no strategic autonomy without a strong industry, nor effective foreign policy without industrial competitiveness.
Regarding the future of the European economic model, the financing of the real economy is central. The continental banking system, with sector champions significantly smaller than their American counterparts, reflects the era of fragmentation. However, consolidation driven purely by regulation, without regard for the economic and industrial fabric, risks being counterproductive, further penalizing businesses operating locally. Banks must continue to support companies during this delicate time, accompanying them toward a growth process that involves greater recourse to financial markets.
In short, this epochal leap requires pragmatism and the ability to adapt. The end of globalization may have strained Western unity, but even within a changed international order characterized by the US-China confrontation, Europe’s role as a third pillar remains crucial. Within this process, Italy’s role as a bridge in the transatlantic relationship is significant. The country is proud to be a founding partner of a European project that is a true alliance rather than a union of weaknesses. The message transmitted by the international scenario in this era of fragmentation is not catastrophic, but “anti-nostalgic”: the single language of globalization no longer exists. There is no use in mourning it; now is the time to act.