X-raying the US elections. A one hour conversation with Charlie Cook
The most accurate way to assess the 2020 election would be to compare it to Donald Trump’s 2016 victory, when Hillary Clinton carried 20 States to his 30.
The 2020 situation is significantly different. Joe Biden’s basic goal was to win in the States that Clinton lost back then by less than 1% and he has done that, which is enough to explain the gap in his favor both across the nation and in key States such as Michigan, Wisconsin, Georgia and Pennsylvania.
The future of America. Trump’s legacy and policy challenges
Almost without exception, the polls point to a situation differs structurally when compared with 2016 – despite the statements of both electoral campaign, and precisely in relation to the reliability of predictions, aimed at mobilizing their respective supporters.
The majority of pollsters assign a probability of no more than 20% to a Trump victory in the Electoral College, which is the real determining factor in who becomes President, regardless of the popular vote. While Biden winning by a slim margin is realistic, a bigger win seems more probable at the present moment.
Aspen Institute Italia Award 2020 for scientific research and collaboration between Italy and the United States
Orbital angular momentum microlaser[1] – A semiconductor laser of micrometric size that produces twisted light by exploiting an “exceptional quantum point”: this is the study that won the fifth edition of the Aspen Institute Italia Award for collaboration and scientific research between Italy and the United States.
The Transatlantic future beyond Covid
Coping with the pandemic and the socio-economic effects of the lockdown is a tough test of the resilience of transatlantic relations at a substantially unstable global moment.
Gli Stati Uniti alla prova di COVID-19
The pandemic has caught the United States at a delicate pre-electoral moment. The incumbent president is counting heavily on solid and sustained economic growth, while the Democratic Party is offering an alternative at least partly founded on a larger government role in income distribution and in providing essential services – including healthcare.
Italy, the US and Europe: facing inevitable change in a smart way
In a global framework filled with uncertainty and marked by several true systemic changes, the still structurally sound transatlantic relationship is undeniably feeling the effect of rising tensions. Both the United States and Europe are subject to strong socio-political forces that are challenging faith in institutions and even the Western model itself – even though clear alternatives have thus far been lacking, and traditional European parties managed to hold out against the anti-establishment and euro-skeptic movements in the recent parliamentary elections.
The US economy and its global impact: internal trends, trade tentions and alliance management
The global economic picture is raising concerns over the (partially synchronized) slowdown being observed in various regions and the uncertainty caused by trade tensions, resulting in a mix of cyclical economic factors, financial concerns (fiscal and monetary policies, debt amount) and geopolitical issues with a pronounced technological dimension. United States and European policies can determine what instruments will be adopted to address these challenges as well as long-term transatlantic cohesion.
Energy and the economy: Trump’s next two years – Transatlantic challenges
It is not going to be the economy that jeopardizes Donald Trump’s eventual re-election to the White House. The American president, who for some remains a sort of accident of history, is much more pragmatic than his abrupt strategy changes and innovative communication habits – by quarrelsome tweet – would indicate. Tax reform is doing the American economy good, and its advantages should last long enough to play a role in his run for a second term in 2020.
Aspen Institute Italia Award
The winner of the third edition of the Aspen Institute Italia Award for scientific research and collaboration between Italy and the United States was a study entitled “The quest for forbidden crystals”, conducted by Luca Bindi, Associate Professor of Mineralogy and Crystallography at the Department of Earth Sciences of the University of Florence, and by Paul J. Steinhardt, Albert Einstein Professor in Science and Director of the Princeton Center for Theoretical Science at Princeton University.
Trump in action: America first from words to deeds
The idea embodied in the expression “America first” represents powerful forces in American society.
Aspenia Talks – Economic relations between Italy and the United States
- Good evening. Thank you Professor Tremonti for the kind introduction. I have actually had the pleasure of meeting Professor Tremonti before, and as I’m sure you all know, he is a very perceptive observer of Italian and world affairs. I am honored to be on stage with him. He is the professor, and I am just the student.
- It’s a pleasure to speak with you tonight about economic relations between the United States and Italy.
- I have been living in Italy, the bel paese, for six months now, and so in many respects, I a
The US Tax reform
Discussions at this national roundtable opened with the observation that the tax reforms signed into law by the Trump administration have an air of momentousness about them and have a significant impact on corporate taxation, with the company tax rate reduced from 35% to 21%. The impact on personal income tax is, however, decidedly more modest, with the tax rate cut by merely 2.6 percentage points, dropping from 39.6% to 37%. In addition, the former measure is, at least in theory, permanent, while the latter – for reasons tied to US parliamentary rules – will end in 2025.