The title of this event yielded three key words for a debate on modern leadership: change, uncertainty and complexity. The proceedings got underway with the observation that any discussion of change entails assessing the various geographical and temporal factors that are increasingly impacting personal and professional life. Twenty years ago, the reach of professional activities was limited to the West, whereas today it is extending more and more towards emerging countries. The cultivation of leadership – it was thus felt – needs to draw inspiration from these inexorable forays of development and opportunities into new territory. In this regard, the culture and international training introduced by multinational companies operating in Italy were seen as constituting a valuable resource.
It was also noted that the variability and increased pace of operating conditions create greater uncertainty, leading neatly into a discussion of the second framing concept of the debate. In an ever more unpredictable climate, it was acknowledged that doubts can arise as to the possibility of formulating a medium- to long-term strategy based on reliable forecasts, with the exponential growth in information flows being received everyday multiplying and accelerating responses and their associated risks. A cogent spirit of adaptability to changes in the operating environment, on the one hand, and being anchored in values that are constant over time, on the other, were therefore considered crucial resources for the exercise of modern leadership. At this stage in the proceedings, the participants took stock of the fact that this has been a recurring theme in the discussions of the Aspen Junior Fellows over the years, and indeed harks back to the topic of the group’s first meeting in 2002, namely, The age of uncertainty: emerging values. In this respect, the importance of leaders expanding their areas of interest beyond their comfort zone and professional sphere of activity was emphasized. Indeed, it was stressed that leaders should be able to extend themselves beyond their own field, to stretch themselves and engage with different experiences, investing some of their time in activities that enrich them as well as contribute to wider social objectives (for instance, a manager in a business-oriented sector could also devote time to non-profit activities). Transparency and exemplary behavior were also highlighted as essential for the exercise of responsible leadership, as were team-building and teamwork skills, and the ability to extend leadership capacity beyond a single charismatic personality.
The third concept embodied in the title of the event and addressed during proceedings, namely, complexity, was viewed as entailing a twofold consideration. On the one hand, a leader is called on to “simplify”, to reduce the resources-strategies-goals paradigm to a clear, succinct and shared vision. Yet conversely, it is possible to become mired in oversimplification, fueled by the rejection of complexity by many stakeholders (ranging from the media to consumers, for instance). It was nevertheless acknowledged that there are turning points in the life of a leader which require fundamental choices to be made, which boil down to a simple either/or decision: a “yes or no” or an “agree or disagree”. The question was therefore posed as to what values should underpin decisions such as these which leave no scope for compromise, and the consequences that might be entailed.
Another issue explored was the extent to which luck plays a role in the career and appointment of leaders (as argued by Nassim Nicholas Taleb in his book “Fooled by randomness”). However, on balance, it was felt that in the long term, over an entire career lived at the vanguard of excellence, personal qualities would indisputably outweigh the effects of chance, which might be limited to specific situations or times. It was suggested that such qualities need to be identified and fostered. In this regard, it was seen as essential that current leaders should manifest an ability to train young up-and-coming talent (tomorrow’s leaders) through coaching and mentoring, for instance, with a particular focus on facilitating access for women to more senior positions.