The most accurate way to assess the 2020 election would be to compare it to Donald Trump’s 2016 victory, when Hillary Clinton carried 20 States to his 30.
The 2020 situation is significantly different. Joe Biden’s basic goal was to win in the States that Clinton lost back then by less than 1% and he has done that, which is enough to explain the gap in his favor both across the nation and in key States such as Michigan, Wisconsin, Georgia and Pennsylvania.
Overall, it could be said that the electoral outcome now, at a few hours from the poll closings, appears to be in line with what most surveys predicted, i.e. a Biden win by a slim margin. The incumbent president’s attempt to raise doubt about the legality of the voting system should not be surprising given his previous announcements, even though invalidation of any decisive results appears highly implausible even in the case of recourse to the Supreme Court.
The biggest surprise in these elections has been Republicans’ gains in the House, and a partial surprise has been their hold out in the Senate, where Democrats’ reprise seemed probable. The picture that emerges for the Congress confirms the survival of a conservative Republic coalition that, moreover, can also rely on six conservative Supreme Court judges against three progressives.
As for the presidential vote, the signs have been fairly clear for months now: added to the relative weakness of the incumbent, who has not earned above a 47% approval overall, is the negative effect of the pandemic, which the administration has surely not handled effectively according to a clear public opinion majority.
Despite the “divided government”, the Republican’s Senate majority is going to produce, it is still possible there will be some progress in legislative terms. Indeed, there is room for collaboration in the Senate, especially on economic measures, while at the same time resisting the impulses of the party’s more radical left wing (particularly in terms of tax policy). Thus, this division could actually be useful to establishing a certain equilibrium between the various factions of the president’s party and create incentives to cooperate with the opposition.
Biden, a true professional politician, has a hefty baggage of Congressional experience and is well versed in the workings of government – in contrast not only with Trump but also with Barack Obama.
His agenda will be centered on eliminating the pandemic, shoring up the economy and accomplishing the green transition, although his approach to environmental and social issues could be more prudent than Obama’s was. In any case, the necessary task of repairing the political, institutional and social cracks is going to be an arduous one given the deep polarization that remains on issues ranging from racial equality to the economic demands of various segments of the population.
When looking at any international impact, Biden’s extensive experience in the sector must be kept in mind. Biden has always espoused the classic transatlantic stance that has marked American foreign policy for decades. Thus, there will be fundamental differences with the Trump administration, especially when it comes to methodology and the approach to allies in Europe, Asia and the Middle East. Although a broad multilateral agenda will be revived, major problems will certainly not be resolved overnight or without difficulty, starting from relations with China; these are bound to retain systemic importance, requiring in-depth and urgent dialogue with Europe.