Nuclear power is entering a new phase, in which it is again assuming a central role on both the geopolitical and energy levels. The growing proliferation of military nuclear capacity testifies to a shift in strategic sensitivities. The recent international tensions – from negotiations on the Iranian program to the explicit threats from Russia, against the background of the war in Ukraine – have restored atomic weapons to the center of the global security debate. Moreover, in Europe the discussion on common defense has been reawakened, not least following the French proposal to strengthen the continent’s nuclear pillar, at a time when doubts are growing over the nuclear umbrella provided by the US.
The construction of a diversified energy mix is also a matter of sovereignty: the energy crisis triggered by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine clearly showed that energy is not just an economic resource but also a vehicle for strategic autonomy. For many countries, that means maintaining democratic oversight and working to reduce inequalities.
At the same time, there is a clear need to reflect on the civil dimension of nuclear energy. In a situation of profound energy transformations, the atom is a key element in achieving decarbonization and supporting the new requirements of the digital transition. While nuclear energy is not renewable in the strict sense, it does not actually produce direct CO2 emissions and so can be viewed as “green”, within a pragmatic approach to sustainability based on the principle of technological neutrality.
The transformations currently taking place also concern energy demand. At present global consumption is divided in a fairly balanced manner between transport, civil uses and industry. However, this traditional three-way breakdown is being altered by the growing significance of the new technologies. The digital revolution, and in particular the deployment of artificial intelligence, is creating ever-growing energy demand. According to reliable projections, by 2028 about half of the energy currently dedicated to civil uses will be absorbed by computation infrastructure and specifically by data centers. Major industrial and technological groups are already taking steps to ensure they have stable, secure energy supplies that are compatible with their needs, and are discovering anew that existing nuclear technologies are an important resource.
Given the great expectations for nuclear fusion, it must be noted that its full commercial application remains a distant prospect, promising as it may be. Over the next two decades, therefore, nuclear energy will continue to be generated by fission. This, however, will undergo a profound transformation thanks to the introduction of safer, more flexible, and in some cases even transportable, modular reactors.
In this scenario, Europe stands at a crossroads. The risk is that the continent will take a backwards technological step, while Russia and China consolidate their leadership in the civil nuclear sector. At present about 75% of reactors being built globally are Russian or Chinese projects; the two countries have an extensive network of relationships with emerging countries like India, Turkey and Bangladesh. Both powers have adopted a cross-cutting technological approach and have invested in both traditional large-scale plants and new-generation modular reactors. The United States and Canada are also key players in this innovation: they are focusing on small modular reactors (SMRs), which provide greater flexibility and security. While political support for decarbonization seems to be in marked decline in the United States, the private sector continues to drive the development of civil nuclear power through substantial investments.
Turning to Europe, a dozen or so countries have adopted new policies favoring nuclear energy. France is distinguished by its commitment both to extending the useful life of its existing reactors and to developing SMRs. It is significant that countries like Belgium that were previously looking to phase out nuclear power have begun to review their positions. Indeed, technological innovations make it possible not just to increase security but also to work towards a dramatic reduction in waste products by reusing these in secondary generation processes; this in turn lowers costs and disposal-related risks.
And yet, notwithstanding the encouraging signs, the picture in Europe remains critical. The Green Deal targets, while valid in principle, have been pursued using methods that are often unsatisfactory and which have led to delays, as well as tensions with industry. Today, a true environmental transition requires an agreed strategy, based on a constructive dialogue between institutions and business, to prevent a deindustrialization process that could undermine the continent’s competitiveness.
In Italy the outlook is changing with respect to the recent past. Opinion polls show that a majority of the public is in favor of nuclear energy. However, structural and regulatory obstacles still remain. These have been toughened by the reform of Title V of the Italian Constitution, which has made the governance of energy infrastructure more complex. The International Atomic Energy Agency views policy decisions as being the first, and vital, step to launching a nuclear program, which translates into the need to approve an enabling act and open a transparent public discussion that involves all stakeholders and fosters an informed debate that avoids entrenched ideological positions.