![\"\"](\"https:\/\/www.aspeninstitute.it\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/PANORAMICA-021-1024x583.jpg\")
<\/figure>\r\n<\/figure>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n
The Trump administration is imposing a sort of continuous acceleration on power dynamics, with a vision explicitly oriented toward power politics. However, it cannot completely break the bonds that tie even a superpower like the United States to economic resources (natural, technological, financial) and their exchange flows. The interplay between the dollar as a reserve currency, American debt (Treasuries), interest rates, fiscal policies, trade balances, and growth rates remains decisive. All these factors combine to define which policy options are actually feasible and politically sustainable.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n
Internationally, we may be moving toward a system where the dollar is not directly replaced by a single alternative currency, but rather integrated into a much more diversified ecosystem of currencies and investment instruments specific to individual regions. This would have profound implications for trade flows and the mutual influence between major actors.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n
The China factor is directly relevant to the choices made by Washington and Europe. Despite the objective strength and systemic weight of the Chinese economy, its internal imbalances are destined to persist. A true change of course would require strengthening the domestic market, which in turn must rely on the rule of law and a society of consumers free to express their opinions. Ironically, the very comparative advantages of the Chinese regime\u2014strategic investment planning and foreign policy\u2014turn into grave constraints and comparative disadvantages regarding domestic transformation.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n Regarding the ongoing conflict surrounding Iran, the situation confirms that the Middle East continues to be heavily influenced by Israel’s initiatives\u2014especially as the Trump presidency has granted wide maneuverability, including military, to the Netanyahu government. While the White House likely envisioned a swift, massive operation against Iran, it must now manage a prolonged confrontation with complex global effects. Despite a weakened military capacity, the Iranian leadership remains determined to raise the price of war for the U.S., Israel, the Gulf monarchies, and Europe. The weaponization of oil and gas prices, and more directly the Strait of Hormuz, allows Iran to compensate for military inferiority with asymmetric tactics that exploit global economic interdependencies.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n The energy sector has acted as a multiplier of instability. Despite the declining share of fossil fuels in the global energy mix, market sensitivity to oil and gas remains undeniable. Further diversification of sources is the only viable path to limit the negative impact of the weaponization of geographic and economic bottlenecks.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n However, this must be coupled with a greater capacity for strategic action: anticipating vulnerabilities rather than merely reacting to acute crises. The primary risks to international trade and politico-military balances are well-known and follow medium-to-long-term trajectories. It is upon this foundation that national measures must be planned and that interstate agreements and business strategies must be built.<\/p>\r\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" The comprehensive assessment of global risks revolves around the centrality of politics: specifically, the internal dynamics of individual states, regional shifts with broader repercussions, and the competition between political models. We find ourselves in a somewhat paradoxical context of intense interdependence within an international system that appears increasingly fragmented and contested. This creates analytical difficulties\u00a0(…)Assessing risk: business in global disorder<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2355,"featured_media":127335,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_bbp_topic_count":0,"_bbp_reply_count":0,"_bbp_total_topic_count":0,"_bbp_total_reply_count":0,"_bbp_voice_count":0,"_bbp_anonymous_reply_count":0,"_bbp_topic_count_hidden":0,"_bbp_reply_count_hidden":0,"_bbp_forum_subforum_count":0,"neve_meta_sidebar":"","neve_meta_container":"","neve_meta_enable_content_width":"off","neve_meta_content_width":70,"neve_meta_title_alignment":"","neve_meta_author_avatar":"","neve_post_elements_order":"","neve_meta_disable_header":"","neve_meta_disable_footer":"","neve_meta_disable_title":"","neve_meta_reading_time":"","_themeisle_gutenberg_block_has_review":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[2934],"tags":[],"freetags":[],"tag_tecnica":[],"temi_aspen":[],"attivita_internaz_in_essere":[],"attivita_internaz_concluse":[],"studi_e_ricerche":[],"primi_nel_tema":[],"tag_tecnici":[],"tag_formato":[],"class_list":["post-126101","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-the-aspen-dialogue-international-programs"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.aspeninstitute.it\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/126101","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.aspeninstitute.it\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.aspeninstitute.it\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.aspeninstitute.it\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2355"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.aspeninstitute.it\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=126101"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/www.aspeninstitute.it\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/126101\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":127477,"href":"https:\/\/www.aspeninstitute.it\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/126101\/revisions\/127477"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.aspeninstitute.it\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/127335"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.aspeninstitute.it\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=126101"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.aspeninstitute.it\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=126101"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.aspeninstitute.it\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=126101"},{"taxonomy":"freetags","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.aspeninstitute.it\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/freetags?post=126101"},{"taxonomy":"tag_tecnica","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.aspeninstitute.it\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tag_tecnica?post=126101"},{"taxonomy":"temi_aspen","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.aspeninstitute.it\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/temi_aspen?post=126101"},{"taxonomy":"attivita_internaz_in_essere","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.aspeninstitute.it\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/attivita_internaz_in_essere?post=126101"},{"taxonomy":"attivita_internaz_concluse","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.aspeninstitute.it\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/attivita_internaz_concluse?post=126101"},{"taxonomy":"studi_e_ricerche","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.aspeninstitute.it\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/studi_e_ricerche?post=126101"},{"taxonomy":"primi_nel_tema","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.aspeninstitute.it\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/primi_nel_tema?post=126101"},{"taxonomy":"tag_tecnici","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.aspeninstitute.it\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tag_tecnici?post=126101"},{"taxonomy":"tag_formato","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.aspeninstitute.it\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tag_formato?post=126101"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}![\"\"](\"https:\/\/www.aspeninstitute.it\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/ROBIN-NIBLETT-CARMINE-MASIELLO-IVANA-KLYMPUSH-TSINTSADZE-KURT-VOLKERROSA-BALFOUR-004-1024x682.jpg\")