The key function of risk management can transmute into chronic pessimism or self-fulfilling prophecies, if risk is understood purely as danger and cost. But risk is a mix that also includes opportunities and innovation. Much depends, however, on the ability to govern situations that encompass the economic, technological, and social spheres and directly concern political institutions at all levels. Understanding the key short, medium, and long-term trends is therefore a vital task.<\/p>\n
In today\u2019s world, the outlook of the United States has been strongly influenced, since the earliest days of the new Trump administration, by direct attacks (by leading figures in that administration) on nearly all of the institutional constraints and safeguard mechanisms designed to rein in the president\u2019s will.<\/p>\n
Turning to Europe, an injection of political realism is clearly needed in terms of the continent\u2019s security. With regard to the conflict in Ukraine, a consensus is emerging on the importance of obtaining certain minimum conditions to guarantee Kiev\u2019s independence in achieving a possible negotiated agreement. Supporting Ukraine\u2019s capacity to fight (if and when it so desires) to protect its very sovereignty is therefore a decisive factor in the defense of the entire continent. Indeed, it is a true strategic and system-level goal \u2013 one which can still be attained if pursued in a coordinated manner.<\/p>\n
The most significant political signal in this respect has come from Germany. According to the declarations of the future chancellor, Friedrich Merz, the country is paving the way for a new approach to budgetary questions and so to the spending and investment capacity of the European Union (EU) as a whole. In this new transatlantic framework, and in the face of the Russian challenge to European security, the EU\u2019s expansion policy has also acquired a highly strategic dimension.<\/p>\n
But there are global factors at play too. These are intertwined with the internal dynamics of Europe and the United States and with the evolution of the transatlantic relationship \u2013 itself now a variable and no longer a pillar of stability. This global context has seen a number of deep, structural changes \u2013 not just in the security framework and the international trade system but also in a number of disruptive technologies.<\/p>\n
A major innovation cycle is under way, hinging on various forms of artificial intelligence (AI). The EU will most certainly have to join this process \u2013 as a late starter, but maintaining its own distinctive values \u2013 in an extremely delicate trade-off. Moreover, in a number of sectors Europe is a highly attractive destination for huge investment flows, as the markets are showing. Facilitating the adoption of new business models to create new markets will be key.<\/p>\n
As for trade tensions, the most probable outcome for the EU lies in a series of calibrated and prudent responses to Trump\u2019s initiatives, without succumbing to the temptation of \u201ctit-for-tat\u201d reprisals. That should enable the survival of the global trade system, albeit in an environment of partial restrictions and obstacles. In any case, a true imperative for Europe, in a global framework in which America\u2019s initiatives are weighing heavily, is to keep all possible negotiating channels with Washington open, notwithstanding the highly assertive positions adopted by the Trump administration. That will make it possible for Europeans to guide the negotiations \u2013 which will inevitably arrive, after an initial period of threats and announcements \u2013 in a constructive direction.<\/p>\n
In this scenario the weight of the Chinese economy also remains significant. Combined with the country\u2019s political ambitions and rearmament process, this makes it an actor of global significance. Beijing\u2019s role in the entire global supply chain of critical raw materials is crucial. In spite of the various derisking efforts, this factor means that a high degree of interdependence is inevitable.<\/p>\n
Another key region is the Middle East. In the global framework it acts as a nodal point for shipping traffic and as an arena of competition between local and external powers, and so as a recurrent trigger-area for intense conflicts. In the case of the Israeli-Palestinian war, while the obstacles on the road to a negotiated peace remain numerous, Saudi Arabia has emerged as the central player in the diplomatic sphere. Turning to the uncertain situation of Iran\u2019s nuclear rearmament and Syria\u2019s future, Riyadh again has maintained operational relations with all key international players. This, along with its economic strength, will enable it to assume multilateral regional responsibilities both within the Arab\u00a0League and in ad hoc coalitions.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"