Italy and its economic fabric are acutely attentive to the new American administration and the economic, social and geopolitical implications of its future decisions. There are many unknowns, but it is probable that Donald Trump\u2019s return to the White House will have a much more structured agenda than the previous one. Indeed, this time the president-elect can rely on a solid majority in Congress, ensuring his power to operate undeterred for at least two years.<\/p>\n
Policies destined to have a significant economic impact include, first and foremost, immigration measures that could affect the availability of manpower and thus generate inflation; accelerated deregulation could have the opposite effect, particularly in the form of increased fossil fuel production.<\/p>\n
The eyes of the world, however, are trained on trade policy, above all. The president-elect has announced trade tariffs on imports of between 10 and 20%; a choice, still to be confirmed, that risks destabilizing transatlantic relations and increasing tensions between the United States and its historic allies in Europe and Asia. This choice also veers substantially away from America\u2019s historic approach to a post-liberal \u201cAmerica First\u201d model committed to domestic deregulation and protectionism vis \u00e0 vis international trade. And with a change of leadership at the Federal Reserve, the new administration\u2019s strategy could even include monetary policy interventions.<\/p>\n
Confronted with this scenario, Europe needs to boost strategic autonomy, starting with the protection of a solid industrial base that remains fundamental to supporting innovation and services. Strategies for promoting manufacturing competitiveness must be shared, since Europe\u2019s is the natural horizon to which the various national industries refer. Moreover, the continental framework is the minimum requirement for successfully competing against economic giants such as China and the United States, with their massive investment capabilities.<\/p>\n
The Green Industrial Deal promoted by the new European Commission could mark a turning point for European industry as long as pragmatism prevails. In particular, sustainability must become a springboard for growth rather than hindering it with obsessive compliance requirements that risk suffocating the innovative capacity of companies and managers.<\/p>\n
In efforts to better focus development policies and avoid past errors, representative bodies should play an important role by maintaining relations with national and European institutions. Lobbies, despite public opinion\u2019s often negative image of them, are essential to democracies. Through transparent dialogue with institutions, they make it possible to improve decision-making processes, especially at a juncture like today\u2019s in which politics appears increasingly detached from the real needs of countries.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n Confronting global challenges calls for the appropriate representation of Italy\u2019s position with regards to its industrial system. The national economy is one in which exports \u2013 which account for 30% of GDP now as compared with 24% in 2013 \u2013 have risen considerably since the introduction of the euro. Italian exports are driven by a multitude of small and medium-sized enterprises that boast leadership in numerous niche markets. Yet, although excelling in many sectors associated with the energy transition, this fabric is falling short in various fields of innovation. The situation is exacerbated by the small average size of Italian companies (95% of Italian companies are defined as \u201cmicro\u201d, with fewer than 10 employees), as well as by training gaps. Only 30% of the Italian population earns a college degree and demographic decline is inexorable; the country\u2019s median age is 48, above the European average of 45 and not even comparable to the American average of 38.<\/p>\n Italy must step up its adoption of advanced technologies in order to make the most of strong points such as design creativity and capacity to promote its own products. At the same time, work needs to be done at the level of training and the recruitment of manpower so as to respond to the growing needs of businesses. These are efforts that cannot be made without public support and the correct use of fiscal leverage. The latter must be capable of sustaining competitiveness and fostering an increase in investments through ad hoc reshoring measures \u2013 proof of which can be seen in the productivity peak that came with the application of \u201cIndustry 4.0\u201d. Support for productivity can also come from a system of \u201ccooperative compliance\u201d aimed at offering stability and tax relief to more structured companies.<\/p>\n After all, with the world\u2019s current complex panorama, Italian enterprises need to get up to speed. The country\u2019s industrial fabric underwent a major adjustment over the last decade, with the rise of trade tensions, but Trump\u2019s victory now quickens the pace toward a post-global era marked by additional protectionist dynamics that could damage export economies. Italy must therefore be ready to respond with strategies that optimize human capital, promote innovation and maintain a competitive industrial edge so as to meet the global challenges ahead.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"