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The world in 2016: Italy, Europe and the United States

    Presentation of Aspenia 71
    • Rome
    • 16 December 2015

          Kick-starting the panel discussion accompanying the launch of the latest issue of Aspen Institute Italia’s Aspenia journal was the observation that in the twenty years since the founding of the journal in 1995 by Giuliano Amato, along with other prominent members of the Institute, the world has changed beyond recognition. At the time of Aspenia’s inception, globalization was certainly not yet a reality, the game-changing impact of new technologies had not yet pervaded economic and social life, the euro did not exist, and a Europe political union was still only a vague notion.

          While it was conceded that there have certainly been achievements to date, the current scenario was described as one characterized by genuine world disorder, possibly heralding a venture into uncharted territory where a global paradigm shift will be necessary. This is because the challenges to be faced in 2016 will be far from inconsequential, including the fight against terrorism, combating climate change, the orderly management of migration flows, and achieving greater energy security. It was suggested that a reinvigorated transatlantic alliance will play a key role in what Charles Kupchan has dubbed as a “No One’s World”, since, however much one might seek to deny it, the United States – while seemingly a reluctant power for years – has now bounced back stronger than ever, based on a highly-effective strategic mix of hard and soft power. Europe, for its part, though considered more confused and weaker, cannot afford to miss this opportunity to regain a central role and reverse the “pivot to Asia” that still seems to be at the core of the Obama administration’s thinking.

          Against this backdrop, the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) talks, which many hope will be concluded in 2016, were seen as potentially an important step towards giving a further boost to growth and employment in the transatlantic economic area, which accounts for a good 46% of the global economy. So too were recent agreements reached on counter-terrorism and security, providing for greater sharing of information and cooperation between different police forces, from which only benefits can stem.

          It was noted, however, that in these twenty years that have so radically changed the world and the priority of the problems to be faced, the battle against global warming has remained central. The recent climate change accord reached in Paris was hailed as an important sign, and – by some – as a historic step, especially as regards the commitment of the Chinese government, which has in other instances shown itself reluctant to undertake to work towards the goal of keeping any further rise in global temperatures to below 2 degrees Celsius. Grounds for optimism were also discerned on the European front, where the commitment towards renewable energy and the pursuit of a common energy policy has been strengthened.

          The geopolitical landscape was described as having undergone a radical transformation during the twenty years that Aspenia has been interpreting and analyzing strategic facts and changes “as events unfold”, calling for a different and complex narrative. The recent acts of terrorism have, for instance, strengthened and expanded an alliance that was otherwise somewhat dormant, and have vindicated those who theorized that the global disorder would be overcome by forging a series of regional balances, which have undoubtedly cost much effort and are focused on  stabilizing the Mediterranean and the Middle East, starting with the situation in Iraq. The sending of 450 Italian troops to protect the Mosul dam was cited as an important contribution that the country has chosen to make towards combating terrorism. The new relationship between the US, EU, and Russia was also viewed as of strategic importance in the fight against Daesh.

          It was stressed that, for the West, losing Iraq would mean entering into an extremely precarious situation, with unforeseeable consequences. In Iraq, as elsewhere, it was felt that a paradigm shift is required, which involves learning to think differently than up till now. It was observed that considerable errors were made in Iraq in past years, particularly by America – something which must not be repeated.

          Summing up, it was emphasized that in respect of Iraq and other cases, Aspenia – with its twenty years of experience – is well-equipped to make a significant contribution to the development of new ideas and new strategies.

          • Paolo Gentiloni and Giulio Tremonti
          • Matteo Del Fante, John Hulsman and Marta Dassù
          • Paolo Gentiloni, Lucia Annunziata and Anthony Luzzato Gardner
          • The world in 2016: Italy, Europe and the United States, Rome, December 16, 2015