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The UK and Europe: the big challenge

    Conversation with Jill Morris and Marta Dassù
    • Rome
    • 18 January 2017

          What road will Britain take once out of Europe, and what repercussions will this have for the European Union, in an international situation fraught with unknowns? These were some of the crucial issues examined in a debate held the day after a speech delivered by the British Prime Minister, Theresa May, at Lancaster House in London, during which it was disclosed for the first time that the UK is opting for a “hard” Brexit, involving a complete withdrawal from the common market as well as from the European Court of Justice. The participants were of the view that this raises two possible scenarios.

          The best-case scenario would see the UK succeed in becoming the “Global Britain” envisioned by Prime Minister May, based on a free trade agreement with a strong and united European Union. A Brexit of this nature would also be positive for Europe, since member states would finally be able to give unified responses to the problems besetting the Union, thereby quelling divisive forces. The worst-case scenario, on the other hand, envisages a “domino” effect, which – it was suggested – the UK would not in the slightest wish to trigger. The advance of populist movements could further weaken the EU, adding steam to the anti-European front. In this regard, it was felt that the upcoming elections in France, the Netherlands, and Germany will also be crucial.

          Precisely to avoid such a scenario, the EU is keen to discourage member states leaving, making no concessions to Britain. As regards future trade treaties in particular, although the terms are still to be hammered out, the time required for the negotiations and, above all, the uncertainty arising from the fact that each member state will need to ratify them, could work to the UK’s disadvantage.

          In the event that Britain judges Europe’s terms to be “punitive”, it has foreshadowed drastic tax cuts to attract capital and investments (the economic viability of such a plan will have to be determined if this comes to pass). The participants stressed that another unknown, for Europe as much as for the United Kingdom, will be the economic policy of new US president, Donald Trump. On one hand, the protectionist proclivities demonstrated thus far leave little room for free trade treaties, which could prove an obstacle in the path to a “Global Britain”. On the other hand, Trump has regularly championed Brexit, attacking the European Union and calling into question Washington’s traditional support for Brussels.

          Lastly, the participants acknowledged that the challenges facing the UK are also internal, ranging from pro-European Scotland threatening to hold yet another referendum, to the task of managing relations with Ireland, where the return of a hard border could reignite tensions eased in part thanks to Europe.

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