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The future of labor

    • Milan
    • 20 November 2015

          The focus of the 14th annual Conference for the Aspen Junior Fellows was the profound transformation undergone by the concept of labor due to major advances in technology, which are changing the way labor is organized, the forms it takes, and where it is performed. Indeed, the institutions that regulate it and the role of workers in increasingly digitized and automated production processes are also changing, while the balance of power between labor and capital has shifted. Predicting the future shape of labor thus calls for a huge but essential stretch of the imagination if opportunities are to be seized and potential risks contained.

          It was observed that, since the Industrial Revolution, labor has evolved considerably. From individual and craft activities that were often home-based, there was a transition to collective labor that was organized and segmented. Machines then alleviated physical labor, while computers have aided intellectual efforts. But these major transformations of the past were described as gradual and often limited to certain professions, at least in their early stages. Today, however, they are sudden, sweeping, and game-changing.

          Robotics, artificial intelligence, big data, cloud computing, the Internet of Things, and 3D and 4D printing were just some of the new technologies cited as having made a forcible impact on labor. At an organizational level, it was suggested that smart working, teleworking, and disintermediation will become more prevalent. Moreover, according to an Oxford University study, by 2030 computers and robots will make human labor superfluous in around 47% of professions. Indeed, the tide of change is so overwhelming that it is not possible today to identify what the ten most significant employment categories will be in 2025. All this – it was felt – creates fears that technological unemployment (as Keynes termed it) will become more and more prevalent, leading to the gradual disappearance of the middle class.

          The symptoms of these future radical transformations were characterized as already partly in evidence today, the increasingly more widespread skills mismatch being a case in point. Indeed, despite masses of unemployed people, it is estimated that around 27% of new jobs remain unfilled due to lack of qualified candidates. Worryingly, according to European Commission data, by 2020 Europe could face a shortage of up to 900,000 digital professionals.

          Yet despite the great challenges and uncertainties posed by these momentous changes, it was stressed that there will be no lack of opportunities. In order to seize them, however, it will be necessary to adopt farsighted policies which pay particular heed to technical training, lifelong learning, soft skills, and the equitable redistribution of wealth. In contrast, continued inaction will not only undermine the country’s competitiveness, but also social stability itself.

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