The panelists at the presentation of the latest issue of Aspenia emphasized that the search for a better energy mix should start with the premise that there is no magic formula. The most prudent choices – whether political or business – must be forward-looking, that is, not merely focused on short-term needs. It was conceded, however, that no energy mix can fully meet all the criteria for an ideal blend, including: security of supply, market competitiveness, and low environmental impact. In the wake of the Fukushima incident, there has obviously been an increased concern over security measures at power facilities in respect of events that are rare but which cannot be ruled out entirely. This heightened awareness will inevitably push up the cost of energy policies, even leaving aside factors pertaining specifically to nuclear power generation.
In terms of the latter, it was stressed that nuclear energy should not be considered as no longer an option and superseded, including in those countries now planning the decommissioning and the phasing out of plants. Care should at least be taken to preserve the accumulated know-how and skills of the civilian nuclear power industry.
Moreover, the planned decommissioning of several plants in different countries will make it more difficult to achieve the environmental targets Europe has set itself – targets by reason of which the EU had expressly aimed to become a world leader in conservation and clean energy.
Indeed, the very lack of a truly common European strategy, in the aftermath of the Fukushima crisis, has actually made the German political U-turn – involving a national decision swayed not just by systemic and long-term considerations – even more critical. The new direction taken by Germany – with the gradual phasing out of nuclear power plants – is leading to increases in commodity prices that may be regarded as here to stay. Furthermore, it was noted that the volume of investment now necessary to compensate for the decline in nuclear-powered energy production is massive, and according to some observers, might even be unsustainable, thus forcing the choices made in recent months to be revisited in future.
The effects identified by the panelists as impacting on Europe as a whole included an increase in the demand for coal and natural gas, as well as a growth in total imports and a greater diversification of energy supplies.
As regards Italy in particular, it was felt that the situation facing the country underscores the key importance of natural gas, whilst the commitment towards renewable energy sources is likely to increase, with an additional share of coal thrown into the country’s energy mix, given the latter’s crucial advantages as a stable source for basic supplies. The fact that Italy has invested heavily in gas for many years was seen as possibly proving an advantage in this new international scenario, but the problem of high price volatility remains, making the economy very vulnerable to a series of geopolitical risks. Finally, the panelists underlined the need, both at the national and international market level, for transparent and stable rules, with the adequacy of investment and, hence, also of indispensable technological innovation, viewed as depending heavily on regulatory certainty.
