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Italy, Europe and the U.S. The Transatlantic link and its future

    • Roma
    • 1 Luglio 2008

          Il ricordo del contributo dato da Giovanni Agnelli alla solidità del rapporto Italia-Stati Uniti è stato il punto di partenza di una conferenza volta a sottolineare una doppia esigenza: da una parte, l’importanza di salvaguardare la eredità storica del rapporto transatlantico, dall’altra, il bisogno di adattare costantemente le politiche e i fori di dialogo alle sfide del momento.

          Questo primo scorcio di XXI secolo ha chiaramente mostrato i sintomi di mutamenti profondi – per certi versi radicali – nella struttura stessa del sistema internazionale, che rendono ancora più essenziale uno stretto raccordo tra le due sponde dell’Atlantico. Per gli Stati Uniti si tratta soprattutto di creare le condizioni per un vasto consenso alla loro leadership, che in molti campi rimane tuttora indiscussa; va dunque coltivata e in parte recuperata la capacità di creare e gestire ampie coalizioni flessibili ma basate sul nucleo euro-americano.Per l’Europa si tratta invece, con sempre maggiore urgenza, di realizzare appieno le sue enormi potenzialità attraverso una maggiore sinergia tra i paesi-membri – nelle istituzioni, nelle linee strategiche e nell’attuazione concreta. L’euro è una pietra miliare in tale processo, e parte dei problemi da affrontare nel prossimo futuro – come il rapporto euro-dollaro – sono di fatto una conseguenza del successo di questo progetto per molti versi visionario. Il continente rimane però caratterizzato da tendenze contraddittorie: ad una ri-nazionalizzazione delle politiche si accompagnano infatti le continue spinte all’integrazione, per ragioni sia ideali che funzionali.

          Per tutti i partner atlantici è comunque necessario intensificare la collaborazione in alcuni settori ormai cruciali, dalla riforma delle regole finanziarie ai mutamenti climatici, dalla sicurezza energetica alla non proliferazione in un numero crescente di aree a rischio.Le prospettive dell’economia globale sono incerte, anche perché alcuni fattori di instabilità e alcuni attori protagonisti sono relativamente nuovi in questa fase di globalizzazione matura.

          Esistono concreti rischi di una spirale di sfiducia, innescata dall’aumento dei prezzi delle materie prime e dei beni alimentari e da un’erosione del risparmio; e poi di tentazioni protezionistiche che, a loro volta, produrrebbero ulteriori danni invece di garantire una reale protezione alle categorie più esposte. Un elemento di possibile novità sta nelle ripercussioni, inferiori rispetto al passato, dell’andamento economico americano sulle altre grandi aree economiche, a cominciare proprio dall’Europa: i dati suggeriscono che il livello di interdipendenza si sia ridotto, sebbene non in misura sostanziale. Ben più evidente sembra, ad oggi, la divergenza – il cosiddetto “decoupling” – tra le tendenze americane e quella dell’America Latina, mentre naturalmente l’area asiatica continua a crescere a ritmi elevati nonostante i suoi legame in realtà sempre più stretti con l’economia degli Stati Uniti.

          Dunque, siamo di fronte ad una situazione di grande complessità. Una delle sfide ineludibili dei prossimi anni è integrare in un sistema globale condiviso le maggiori potenze emergenti, rafforzando le nostre capacità collettive di governance. Ciò richiederà delicati compromessi, visto che le regole attuali sono state concepite come corollario di una incontrastata superiorità del modello occidentale. Fenomeni come quello dei “fondi sovrani” ci ricordano quanta influenza diretta possano ormai esercitare attori economici che in molti casi non sono attualmente vincolati dalle stesse regole delle loro controparti occidentali.

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          Strillo: Italy, Europe and the U.S. The Transatlantic link and its future